What will happen to 5G base stations if power is cut off? Can operators handle the performance?

Power outages are happening all over the country, and this wave seems to have come unexpectedly. After all, in the post-epidemic era, the economy has not yet reached its peak.

In August, my country's economy continued to recover steadily, and the total electricity consumption of the society continued to grow, reaching 760.7 billion kWh. From January to August, the total electricity consumption of the society reached 5470.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. In terms of industries, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 66 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%; the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 3652.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%; the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 953.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%; the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 798.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%.

There are different interpretations and actions for the power outage. It is said that the southeast direction restricts high-energy-consuming factories, while the northeast direction means that many people are out of light.

It has to be said that this society is too diverse, with some happy and some sad. The epidemic has further divided the strong and the weak. Electricity consumption is just a small microcosm.

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The total operating income and net profit of China's top 500 companies in 2021 increased, asset expansion accelerated, the number of companies in the 100 billion club increased to 222, and the industrial structure was optimized and upgraded. In short, the epidemic does not seem to have a major impact on the top 500 companies, including operators.

On September 23, China Mobile recently announced its operating data for August 2021, with a net increase of 24.537 million 5G package customers that month. As of the end of August 2021, the number of 5G package customers reached 304.145 million. In August 2021, China Mobile's mobile customer base increased by 3.635 million, with a total of 951.1 million users.

On September 24, China Telecom announced its operating data for August 2021. In that month, China Telecom's mobile user base increased by 2.18 million, with a total of 366.8 million mobile users. In that month, the net increase in 5G package users was 8.41 million, with a total of 146.62 million 5G package users.

On September 24, China Unicom announced its operating data for August 2021. In that month, China Unicom added 1.342 million mobile account users, totaling 312.953 million. Among them, 5G users increased by 7.989 million in that month, totaling 129.061 million.

A simple calculation shows that the total number of mobile users of the three operators is 1.63 billion, which has reached a new historical peak. From this point of view, number portability and network disconnection actions have not had much impact on the number of users of the operators.

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Of course, the operators did not escape this wave of power outages. According to media reports, Ms. Li, a resident of Shenbei New District, told reporters that the power outage on the 23rd affected the network and communications. She received a text message from the telecom operator on the morning of the 24th saying that due to the municipal power outage from 5:00 to 24:00 on September 23, some base stations in the Shenyang area may not work normally, which will affect mobile phone Internet access and calls.

In the "Proposal to Power Users in Guangdong Province to Use Electricity in an Orderly and Conservative Manner", jointly issued by the Guangdong Provincial Energy Bureau and the Guangdong Power Grid, it is clearly stated that "Party and government agencies and public institutions at all levels in the province are required to set an example and take the lead in practicing green and energy-saving office work. ... The air conditioning temperature should be set at no less than 26°C, doors and windows should be kept closed during air conditioning operation, and air conditioning and other office equipment should be turned off during non-working hours. ... Elevators should not be used in offices on the third floor or below."

Some people believe that the reasons for power outages are "double control of energy consumption and carbon peak". The essence of power outages is a structural decapacity and a life-and-death battle for pricing power. Things have become very complicated, and everyone has their own opinions. One of them is not to cut off the electricity for people's livelihood. In today's society, everyone has become accustomed to a stable life. People really can't afford a power outage.

On August 14, 2003, a large-scale power outage occurred in parts of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada. The first major blackout occurred in Manhattan, New York City, followed by several major cities in the eastern United States, such as Detroit, Cleveland and Boston, and the Canadian capital Ottawa and the commercial center Toronto were not spared. According to David Rosenberg, chief economist of Merrill Lynch, the total economic loss was estimated to be between 25 billion and 30 billion US dollars.

In 1977, the United States suffered a 25-hour blackout. According to statistics, a total of 1,616 stores were looted and 1,037 fires occurred. In the largest mass arrest in history, 3,776 people were arrested, most of whom were African-Americans. Because there were too many prisoners in the overcrowded cells, they had to be locked up in community basements and other temporary locations. It is estimated that the cost of the losses exceeded $300 million (equivalent to $1.2 billion today).

The 1977 New York blackout had two wonderful consequences. First, many high-end musical instruments in the stores were stolen, and black children could get DJ equipment that they could not afford, which indirectly promoted the development of hip-hop culture. In addition, nine months later, a large-scale baby boom occurred in New York, and the birth rate of infants in hospitals rose sharply. This fully explains what traditional entertainment activities people did on the night of the blackout who did not go out to rob the streets. As one economist commented: "If the lights and TVs are off, it will set the table for romance..."

Electricity is very important to operators. Without electricity, there will be no signal and no income. Moreover, 5G consumes a lot of electricity. According to data from a certain operator, each 5G base station consumes 65 kWh of electricity per day on average, and the electricity price is basically around 1 yuan per kWh, so the daily electricity cost of a 5G base station is 65 yuan.

Taking into account the increase in power generation and the equipment optimization of 5G base stations, according to official forecasts, it is conservatively estimated that the three major operators will need to pay 16.5-21.5 billion yuan in electricity bills per year. By 2026, the power consumption of 5G base stations will rise to 2.1% of the total social electricity consumption. In 2019, the power consumption of 5G base stations in my country accounted for about 0.05% of the total social electricity consumption. By 2023, the power consumption of 5G base stations is expected to account for 1.3% of the total social electricity consumption.

The answer given by China Telecom in its official report is: "As of the end of 2019, the company had a total of more than 60,000 5G base stations with service capabilities, and had launched 5G networks in more than 50 cities across the country"; "Due to the expansion of mobile network scale, the construction of 5G networks, and the rapid growth of cloud and IDC businesses, total electricity consumption in 2019 increased by 14.1% over the previous year, and comprehensive energy consumption increased by 11.3% over the previous year."

The analysis pointed out that without considering that the existing network and newly added 4G base stations can continue to reduce energy consumption by applying mature energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies, the addition of 60,000 5G base stations alone has caused the power consumption per carrier frequency of the entire network base stations to rise sharply from 717 degrees to 1,096 degrees. China Mobile and China Unicom completed the construction and networking of 50,000 and 62,000 5G base stations respectively in 2019, and their annual total power consumption also increased by 8% and 11% year-on-year.

According to an analysis by China Tower, the typical power consumption of a single 5G base station system of several mainstream manufacturers is: Huawei 3500W, ZTE 3255W, Datang 4940W. In comparison, the power consumption of a single 4G system is only 1300W, and 5G is 3-4 times that of 4G. Including various facilities, the average power consumption of a single tenant of a 5G outdoor base station is about 3.8KW, and the annual comprehensive electricity bill of a single 5G base station tenant is about 23,000-30,000 yuan/year.

A simple calculation shows that 5G coverage in China will require about 6 million base stations. The average energy consumption of a base station is 3500w. The annual power consumption of a base station is 3.5kwh×24h×365d=30660kwh, which is about 30,000 kWh per year. If there are 6 million base stations, then 30,000 kWh×6 million=1800.0000.0000 kWh, or 180 billion kWh.

For a simple comparison, the Three Gorges Power Station generated 96.877 billion kWh of electricity in 2019. In theory, the power generation of the Three Gorges Dam in two years is enough to meet the annual power consumption of 6 million base stations. China's power generation in 2019 was 714.22 billion kWh, so the power consumption of base stations accounted for about 2.52%.

We have to say that considering the population size and user utilization rate, the so-called new users of operators are no longer new in the literal sense. A large amount of market competition is just pouring water back and forth, which has no other effect except dissipating industry energy and turning hot water into cold water. However, our costs are actually increasing, including electricity bills.

Isn’t this also the case with global trade during the current epidemic?

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According to reports, starting from September 22, many provinces have started power cuts and shutdowns. In Shaoxing, a major textile town in Zhejiang, 161 printing and dyeing and chemical fiber companies were notified to stop production until the end of the month. More than 1,000 companies in Jiangsu "open two days and stop two days", and Guangdong opened two days and stopped five days, retaining only less than 15% of the total load. Yunnan reduced the production of yellow phosphorus and industrial silicon by 90%, and Liaoning implemented accident power cuts in 14 cities. If all localities and industries can do this, can operators cut off the power to base stations?

In short, as the digital economy grows, everything will use electricity, and the amount of electricity consumed will also increase. Operators will one day become the largest electricity users. Of course, this is not the fault of operators, but it shows that operators have made greater contributions to society.

On July 15, 2021, China Mobile released the "C² Three Energy - China Mobile Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Action Plan" in Beijing. Dong Xin, general manager of China Mobile, said that in terms of 5G base station energy consumption, China Mobile's goal during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is to reduce the energy consumption of new single stations by 20% compared with 2020. It seems that operators are already taking action, and the whole society is taking action!

Some people asked why there was a sudden power outage when the weather is neither too hot nor too cold and it is not even the end of the year. I don’t understand, and there is no need to understand, because they didn’t want you to understand! Some things really have to be understood! Therefore, the logic of this article is a bit messy.