Review of 2019 | 5G: Networks and terminals develop rapidly, and manufacturers are betting on it

"The first year of 5G" has become synonymous with 2019. 5G networks have been rapidly deployed in many cities this year, and 5G terminals have gradually matured this year. However, the hottest use case in 5G applications is still "network speed testing." The road to 5G has just begun.

From nothing to something, from little to much

When it comes to 5G and 2019, people unanimously use the term "the first year of 5G" to describe it. Although 5G networks and hub-type terminals could be seen in some North American regions at the end of 2018, the 5G era was officially ushered in in North America in March 2019 with the official launch of 5G mobile phones.

With the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issuing 5G commercial licenses to China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom and China Broadcasting Corporation on June 6, China has officially entered the first year of 5G commercial use. The 5G era has also changed from the original three major operators to four major operators. Then in August, 5G mobile phones also began to land in the domestic market. Huawei Mate X 5G version and ZTE AXON 10 PRO 5G version became the first batch of 5G mobile phones. Compared with the previous 3G first year and 4G first year era, the mobile phones all support the 5G networks of the existing three major operators and support the 5G frequency bands of China Mobile n41, China Unicom n78 and China Telecom n78.

5G network coverage is also rapidly expanding in cities. China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom have begun to cover 5G networks in at least 40 cities. In August alone, China Telecom has conducted 5G scale testing and application demonstrations in 17 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Xiong'an, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Wuhan, Chengdu, Fuzhou, Lanzhou, Qionghai, Nanjing, Haikou, Yingtan, and Ningbo. On this basis, it will quickly expand to 40 cities. China Mobile and China Unicom cover the same cities: the municipalities are Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing; the provincial capitals are Hefei, Fuzhou, Lanzhou, Guangzhou, Nanning, Guiyang, Haikou, Shijiazhuang, Zhengzhou, Harbin, Wuhan, Changsha, Changchun, Nanjing, Nanchang, Shenyang, Hohhot, Yinchuan, Xining, Jinan, Taiyuan, Xi'an, Chengdu, Lhasa, Urumqi, Kunming, and Hangzhou; the centrally administered municipalities are Dalian, Qingdao, Ningbo, Xiamen, and Shenzhen; and other cities are Xiongan, Zhangjiakou, Suzhou, and Wenzhou.

Judging from the global overall data in the first year of 5G, it has achieved more remarkable results than the first year of 4G. Data from April 2019 alone shows that the deployment speed of 5G is faster than that of 4G. In the first year of 4G, only four mobile operators deployed networks and three terminal manufacturers released 4G products; but in the first year of 5G, more than 20 operators have announced 5G network deployment plans, and more than 20 5G terminals will be released this year.

By the end of 2019, more than 40 operators around the world have deployed 5G networks, and more than 40 terminal manufacturers have announced the launch of 5G terminals. By the end of 2020, the world is expected to have 200 million 5G users. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also stated that it will strive to achieve 5G network coverage in all prefecture-level cities across the country by the end of 2020.

On the other hand, 5G mobile phones have also experienced a process of development from nothing to something, and from few to many this year. Compared with the initial two mobile phones available in the domestic market, there are now nearly 7 5G mobile phones available. At the same time, more than 230 terminal designs using Qualcomm's 5G solutions have been released or are being designed worldwide. In the future, by 2022, the cumulative global shipments of 5G smartphones are expected to exceed 1.4 billion units, and by 2025, the number of global 5G connections is expected to reach 2.8 billion.

NSA, SA, millimeter wave, the more complete the better

The topics of NSA, SA, Sub-6GHz, and millimeter wave have been constantly changing this year. If you search for information before June 2019, NSA seems to be the protagonist. Many operators have stated that they will choose NSA as the main network construction method in the initial stage.

However, when the time node came to June 26, Yang Jie, chairman of China Mobile, said that from January 1, 2020, my country will not allow NSA mobile phones to access the network, and will make every effort to transition to SA 5G networking-SA and NSA represent 5G independent networking and non-independent networking respectively. All of a sudden, the debate between SA and NSA spread across the Internet, and affected the promotional copy between mobile phone chip manufacturers and mobile phone manufacturers, and even triggered a war of words. NSA single-mode mobile phone manufacturers began to emphasize the maturity of NSA at the press conference, and emphasized the fact that NSA mobile phones can continue to be used in the future. NSA/SA dual-mode products began to promote true and false 5G as a selling point. In fact, as long as the standard recognized by 3GPP is true 5G, for users, the best product choice is a mobile phone with better signal and better energy consumption ratio.

At the end of the year, the ultimate goal of mobile phones supporting more frequency bands has once again triggered the definition of "true 5G". With the widespread adoption of 5G millimeter wave bands in North America, Europe, Japan, and South Korea will also use Sub-6GHz+ millimeter wave to deploy 5G networks in 2020, while China, Australia, and Latin America may use Sub-6GHz+ millimeter wave in 2021. A mobile phone that supports both Sub-6GHz+ millimeter wave is defined as "true 5G".

As mentioned above, the support of mobile phones for all frequency bands has always been the ultimate goal of solution providers and mobile phone manufacturers. In fact, while supporting NSA/SA dual-mode and being compatible with Sub-6GHz+millimeter waves, 5G mobile phones are also being limited to the use of countries or regions where they were sold in the first half of the year. By the end of the year, they will have the ability to achieve 5G global access. At the Snapdragon Technology Summit at the end of 2019, the newly released Snapdragon 865 and Snapdragon 765/765G modems X55 and X52 both support the Sub-6GHz and millimeter wave bands of operators around the world known in 2020 and 2021. At the same time, the Exynos Modem 5123, which works with the Samsung Exynos 990, also supports Sub-6GHz and millimeter wave bands.

2B/2C Put an egg in each basket

In 2019, even if you attend a press conference that has nothing to do with 5G, your boss will mention 5G in his keynote speech. If it can be combined with 5G, then talk about combining it. If it can’t be combined, then talk about planning. If there is no planning, then talk about ideas. Although 5G has not yet enabled everything as claimed in the propaganda, it has already enabled tens of thousands of companies in 2019.

The reason is that 5G has given every industry a new opportunity, or through this opportunity, it can become a killer application in the 5G era, just like the Apple iPhone that caused Nokia phones to fall into decline in the 3G era, or WeChat or Line that turned text messages into verification code tools or spam channels in the 4G era. The 5G era gives all industries the opportunity to become new killer applications, just like the slightly similar 5G logos of the three major operators. 5G is like a square root and a panacea. It can be put into cars to help autonomous driving, put into factories to realize intelligent manufacturing, and put into VR to help it climb out of the death valley and make a comeback.

Unfortunately, when 5G was put into mobile phones in 2019, as Wang Jianzhou said, it could only help users test network speed for the time being. However, everyone wants to bet on the 5G killer golden egg in the future, so 5G can take the lead in empowering every company's PPT. However, at this time, helping more products and industries to realize 5G empowerment may become the biggest golden egg in recent years, so traditional MCU manufacturers and AP manufacturers began to focus on IoT, edge computing, and integrating 5G+AI. The above three points have become the focus of many solution manufacturers. However, when choosing 2B or 2C business as the main focus, there is still a distinction, but whether it is 2B/2C or still, eggs will be thrown in the basket, but the number of eggs will be different.

Companies that bet on 5G to explode in the 2B field believe that the high construction costs and high power consumption of 5G will eventually be paid by companies in the 2B field, so these companies focus on providing more manufacturers with 5G-enabled capabilities or helping manufacturers gain a leading position in non-consumer products in the 5G era. For example, they provide the underlying architecture and development interfaces of indoor base stations, help operators implement NFV, and help companies achieve industrial automation.

Companies that bet on 5G in the 2C field, or believe that 5G will explode in the 2C field in the next few years, have even begun to make their press conferences more and more artistic. Do you think Apple doesn't care about 5G? Buying a new device gives you a year of Apple TV+ membership, which includes TV series, documentaries, and movies. It's not just for sentimentality. Many operators have already begun to acquire sports companies and film and television companies in order to gain content advantages in the 5G era, and through their own original technologies, they allow content to be transformed through 5G and achieve more forms of expression, so that the 4K set-top box and head-mounted VR at home are no longer an empty shell, but have more exclusive content.

Who will be the real 5G killer application? Perhaps we still won’t find the answer in 2020. Will it be on the B-end or the C-end, will it be a manufacturer that seizes the opportunities of AI and edge, or will it be a software developer that focuses on a specific type of usage? I’m afraid no one can guess it, just like you once dreamed of saving money to buy a Nokia N series mobile phone, and also wanted to apply for a text message package, but that was only you 12 years ago.