What hurdles do 5G mobile phones need to overcome before they can be launched on the market?

Recently, more and more mobile phone manufacturers have disclosed the launch time of the first batch of 5G mobile phones, and some even claim that they will be the first to be launched. From an industry and professional perspective, the official commercial launch of 5G mobile phones in China is not something that can be achieved overnight, and it still requires overcoming many obstacles.

In June 2018, the 5G standalone (SA) standard was frozen, and the non-standalone (NSA) 5G NR specification was completed in December last year, which means that 3GPP has completed the first phase of global 5G standard work and is ready for commercial deployment next year. Ten days after the standard was frozen, operators, system equipment manufacturers and even the global industry chain gathered at MWCS (2018 Mobile World Congress - Shanghai) to collectively release 5G signals, showing a trend of letting a hundred flowers bloom.

1. Three obstacles at the national regulatory level

1. 5G frequency band allocation: The three major domestic operators need to use the 5G frequency band approved by the state to open 5G networks and services. As of now, the final allocation plan is still under discussion. As long as the frequency band is not allocated, the network cannot be officially opened and the mobile phone cannot be commercially used.

2. Issuance of 5G licenses: Only when the state issues 5G licenses to operators can the conditions for commercial use of 5G services be met. Of course, according to convention, it is possible to issue a "trial commercial" license first, or it is possible to issue a commercial license directly. In China, it is not possible to "work without a license."

3. Network access license: Mobile phones must have "three certificates" (3C certificate, model approval certificate, and network access license) to be listed in the Chinese market. The 3C certificate is relatively simple, and the model approval certificate is closely related to the "frequency allocation" mentioned above. The network access license is more complicated. First, there must be relevant product specifications and test specifications issued by the state. After completing a series of tests, the network access license will be issued. Of course, according to convention, it may be relatively relaxed for "trial commercial" products.

2. Two obstacles at the operator level

1. Network progress: In 2018, the three major operators were building experimental networks in 10-20 cities respectively, and are expected to start trial commercialization in 2019. However, the scale of the trial commercialization, the number of base stations to be opened, the coverage area, the types of terminals carried, etc. are not very clear. Without a network, only mobile phones are "a hero without a place to use his skills."

2. Network access test: The country has three certificate requirements, and operators also have different "customization" requirements. In addition to customization specifications (or white papers), there must also be test specifications. After manufacturers develop products according to customization specifications and test specifications, they need to send products to operators for laboratory and live network testing. Only after the test is passed can they get the operator's "policy" support.

3. Two obstacles in industry collaboration

1. Standards come before chips: The networking standards have just been frozen, and it will take time to refine and implement them into finalized chips for batch supply. Only when all standards are complete can real 5G chips come out. Currently, only a few chip manufacturers such as Qualcomm, Huawei, MTK, and Intel have the ability to develop 5G chips. Therefore, under this highly monopolized situation, the right to speak on the time of listing is actually concentrated in the hands of chip manufacturers.

2. Mobile phones are only available with chips: Only after chip manufacturers provide 5G chips can mobile phone manufacturers complete the supporting design of mobile phones. The design process requires in-depth intervention and assistance from chip manufacturers. Therefore, there is a saying in the industry that "which brand of 5G mobile phones will be launched first is decided by chip manufacturers." The actual meaning is that the mobile phone brand that chip manufacturers support more strongly will have the "first-mover advantage."

The above-mentioned are the most basic and rigid "hurdles". In addition, there are actually some other tedious "hurdles", such as the arrival of testing instruments, chip and product production capacity ramp-up, channel sales, user experience, etc.

There are reasons why the industry and the market are so enthusiastic about 5G. The main points are as follows:

1. Prediction of the "speed" of 5G mobile phone launch. According to the progress of various aspects, it is predicted that a small batch of trial commercial 5G mobile phones will be launched around the middle of 2019, and relatively mature batch 5G mobile phones are expected to be launched at the end of 2019. 5G mobile phones with rich brands and models are expected to gradually replace 4G mobile phones from the first half of 2020.

Second, the first batch of 5G mobile phone market is still a battlefield for "big families". Unlike 3G and 4G, foreign countries built networks first and foreign mobile phones were launched first. In the 5G era, Chinese 5G mobile phones will be synchronized or ahead of foreign markets. From the perspective of product development difficulty and chip vendor support, the first batch of 5G mobile phones launched will be dominated by the current market ranking TOP0 or TOP5 brands (but it is predicted that iPhone's 5G mobile phone will be launched in 2020), and will be dominated by domestic brands.

3. 5G mobile phones are indeed widely concerned. With the arrival of the maturity of 4G, the iteration of smartphone products has slowed down, the user appeal is insufficient, and the product differentiation is less. After maintaining growth for several years, the sales of smartphones began to decline in 2017. The mobile phone industry urgently needs 5G as a "boost" to improve product competitiveness and differentiation and form a new "phone replacement wave".

4. Domestic consumers are "passionate" about 5G mobile phones. "5G" will be the dominant selling point of smartphones. Users who first own 5G mobile phones can not only enjoy a faster and better network experience in 5G coverage areas, but also have the capital to "show off". Therefore, for 4G and 5G mobile phones with similar hardware selling points, it is difficult for 4G mobile phones to sell well.

In fact, with the arrival of the 5G era, the launch of 5G mobile phones is just an iterative upgrade of 4G mobile phones and a visible "gold mine". Unlike the past mobile communication era, in addition to personal mobile scenarios, the 5G era has more opportunities in IoT, and will bring more challenges and opportunities to the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.