In 2017, the wireless and mobile sectors welcomed multiple favorable factors and the pace of industrial development accelerated.

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The bell of 2017 has rung. Facing the new year, all walks of life are gearing up for the new year, hoping to achieve better development. Summarizing and looking forward seem to have become "compulsory courses" for all industries at the beginning of the new year. Summarizing is for better progress, and looking forward is for better development in the future. At the "2017ICT In-depth Observation Large Report Conference" held recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology summarized the development achievements of "2017ICT In-depth Observation - Wireless and Mobile Field" in 2016 and made a forecast of the trend in 2017. In general, the wireless and mobile fields will usher in various favorable conditions in 2017, and the pace of industrial development will also accelerate.

A Review of Wireless and Mobile Industry in 2016

In 2016, the wireless and mobile fields achieved many breakthroughs and achievements. As of September 2016, there were about 7.4 billion mobile users worldwide. The development of 3G\4G was relatively stable, and the number of new 4G users continued to significantly exceed that of 3G users. In addition, the global mobile data traffic increased by more than 50% year-on-year, and the growth rate of domestic mobile data traffic reached a new high. In 2016, the industry chain actively promoted the application of VoWiFi, and VoWiFi has gradually formed a trend of integration with VOLTE. In terms of terminals, in 2016, the growth rate of the domestic mobile phone market declined significantly, and the 4G transition was basically completed.

Market: 4G is replacing 3G significantly globally, with 4G users accounting for more than half of all users in my country

As of September 2016, there were approximately 7.4 billion mobile users worldwide. In 2016, 3G\4G development was relatively stable, and the number of new 4G users continued to significantly exceed that of 3G users. In September 2016, the number of new LTE users was approximately 500 million. The cumulative number of users exceeded 100 million. The growth rate of my country's mobile user scale in 2016 was basically the same as that in 2015. As of August 2016, my country's mobile users reached 1.33 billion, with a penetration rate of 93%, an increase of more than 3 million users over the end of 2015. LTE users continue to grow rapidly. In August 2016, my country's LTE users reached 660 million, accounting for 50.1% of the total mobile users. Affected by 4G, the negative growth of 3G users accelerated.

Traffic: Domestic mobile data traffic growth hit a new high, and per capita traffic doubled

In 2016, the impact of Internet application business substitution continued, with global mobile data traffic increasing by more than 50% year-on-year, and domestic mobile data traffic increasing by a record high. In the past four years, the global mobile Internet traffic has grown at a compound annual rate of more than 50%, and this year the traffic scale has increased by 53%; in 2016, the volume of traditional business continued to decline, but the decline has narrowed; in 2016, affected by the increase in the scale of domestic 4G users and the high DOU of 4G users, the growth rate of domestic mobile data traffic reached a record high, with a year-on-year increase of 123% in the first three quarters, and the average monthly total traffic reached 690 million GB.

In addition, in 2016, domestic DOU exceeded 700M, and mobile Internet traffic accounted for nearly 90%. By the first three quarters of 2016, domestic DOU reached 740MB, more than doubling over the same period, mainly driven by 4G network users. Currently, 4G networks carry more than 70% of traffic, while 3G networks carry less than 30%; mobile Internet (cellular) traffic also maintained a doubling growth trend, accounting for 89.2% of the total mobile Internet traffic, and IoT terminal traffic accounted for a very small proportion.

Industry chain: Actively promote the integration of VoWiFi applications and VOLTE

It is understood that as of the first half of 2016, 63 VOLTE commercial networks have been launched and operated worldwide, and more than 120 operators in another 60 countries are testing or experimenting with VOLTE networks, and 430 4G terminals support VOLTE; according to HIS forecasts, it is expected that by the end of 2016, the number of global VOLTE users will reach 310 million.

Operators upgrade EPC and IMS networks, and expand VOLTE-based services to WiFi access. Users can make calls via WiFi, and support seamless switching between VoLTE and VoWiFi. VoWiFi can make up for the lack of LTE indoor coverage and increase user stickiness. In other words, any Wi-Fi can access the operator's core network through the Internet, and users can enjoy wire-level voice services, making up for the lack of 3G/4G indoor coverage and improving user stickiness.

Terminals: Global mobile phone shipments growth rate approaches zero, 4G becomes the global mainstream

In 2016, the growth rate of the domestic mobile phone market declined significantly, and the transition to 4G was basically completed. According to a report released by Gartner: the global mobile phone shipments in 2016 are expected to be about 1.92 billion units, an increase of only 0.23% over last year. The number of global mobile users will exceed the total population for the first time at the end of this year, and the demand for mobile phones will be further compressed. The growth of mobile phone shipments has been close to zero. According to a report released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, my country's mobile phone shipments are expected to reach 570 million units in 2016, with an annual growth rate of 9.2%, which still has not reached the total shipment level in 2013.

According to a report released by Gartner, 4G mobile phones are expected to account for 57.5% of global mobile phone shipments in 2016, a further increase from last year, and have become the mainstream of the global mobile phone market. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology said that my country's 4G mobile phone shipments in 2016 are expected to reach about 520 million units, with a market share of about 92%, an increase of seven percentage points from last year, and the 2G/3G mobile phone market has further shrunk.

Terminal technology: my country's VOLTE terminals have grown significantly, and CAT4 is still the mainstream level

VOLTE and carrier aggregation have become the mainstream technologies for LTE terminals around the world. According to the GSA report, as of October 10, 2016, there were 646 smart terminal models supporting VOLTE around the world, nearly three times the number in the same period of 2015, a significant increase. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology said that in the third quarter of 2016, among the 4G mobile phones that applied for network access in my country, models supporting VOLTE accounted for as high as 88.9%, an increase of 86.8 percentage points compared with the third quarter of 2015.

The GSA report also stated that as of October 2016, CAT4-capable new models accounted for 52.2% of the global LTE terminals, still the mainstream of the market, and terminals supporting 600Mbps high-speed rates began to appear. The report released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology showed that among the 4G mobile phones that applied for network access in my country in the third quarter of 2016, there were 105 CAT6 mobile phones, and the proportion of new models is still increasing.

Outlook for wireless and mobile trends in 2017

In 2017, the development of wireless and mobile fields has more favorable conditions and expectations. It is predicted that in 2017, the number of global mobile users will be close to 8 billion, and my country's LTE users are expected to exceed 1 billion. At the same time, thanks to the gradual popularization of 4G networks and favorable policies such as speed increase and fee reduction, the potential demand for user traffic in my country has been released. In addition, 2017 is the most critical year for the development of the Internet of Things, and NB-IOT will also start commercial use in 2017.

In 2017, the number of global mobile users will approach 8 billion, and the number of LTE users in my country is expected to exceed 1 billion

In 2016, the number of mobile users worldwide will approach 8 billion, with a penetration rate of 104%, and is expected to exceed 9 billion in 2021. The number of LTE users worldwide is in a period of rapid development, and is expected to approach 4 billion in 2021. LTE users are expected to exceed WCDMA users in 2018 and become the technology with the highest user share in 2019. It is expected that in 2017, the penetration rate of LTE users in my country's total mobile users will be close to 85%, among which TD-LTE will dominate the Chinese market, and is expected to reach 870 million in 2021. In 2017, my country will carry out the second phase of 5G trials and actively promote the formation of a global unified 5G standard.

Global mobile data traffic grows steadily, and domestic DOU will exceed 5GB in 2020

It is predicted that global mobile data traffic will increase 10 times in 2021, and domestic per capita traffic will increase 18 times. Due to the continuous increase in the number of smartphone users and the 10-fold increase in data traffic of smartphone users compared to 2015, it mainly comes from mobile video and social network applications. In addition, thanks to the gradual popularization of 4G networks and favorable policies such as speed increase and fee reduction, the potential demand for user traffic in my country has been released. From 2016 to 2021, the average monthly traffic of domestic mobile Internet continued to grow rapidly. It is expected that by 2021, the average monthly traffic per capita will increase by more than 18 times compared to 2015, reaching 7GB.

Domestic 2/3G users are rapidly migrating to 4G networks. In 2017, the proportion of 4G traffic will exceed 90%. It is expected that by the end of 2016, the proportion of domestic 4G network data traffic in total mobile traffic will exceed 70%. It is expected that the annual compound growth rate of domestic 4G network mobile data traffic will exceed 150% between 2016 and 2021. Next year, the annual compound growth rate of 4G network mobile data traffic in my country will exceed 90%, and 2G will gradually withdraw from the mobile data traffic market.

NB-IOT will be put into commercial use in 2017

It is reported that NB-IOT is a global unified standard for low-power and wide-coverage scenarios. NB-IOT is a new narrowband system optimized for the Internet of Things, with an operating bandwidth of 180kHz, which can effectively use GSM-related spectrum and match LTE PRB. The downlink adopts OFDMA multiple access scheme, and the uplink supports single-wave and multi-wave schemes. Each cell supports about 50,000 connections, the coverage will reach 25 kilometers, and the terminal battery life is nearly 10 years. The 3GPP NB-IOT technical standard has been officially released, and CCSA will also complete the main contents of the NB-IOT industry standard by the end of this year.

With the clarification of NB-IOT product planning, operators have released commercial plans. Many manufacturers plan to release NB-IOT chips at the end of 2016 or early next year, such as Huawei, Intel, and ZTE. With the completion of the NB-IOT standard protocol, many operators around the world have carried out technical verification and demonstration based on the NB-IOT standard. Many operators have released NB-IOT commercial plans. China Unicom will carry out pilot verification and commercial deployment in batches in eight to nine cities in 2016 to prepare for the commercial use of Mingnai.

For commercial deployment, NB-IOT still faces many challenges in 2017. Finding killer applications is a prerequisite for expanding the scale of the NB-IOT industry; building a cross-industry industrial chain and division of labor and cooperation are crucial; establishing a security mechanism is an important factor for the healthy development of NB-IOT.

my country launches second phase of 5G trials to promote global unified 5G standards

In 2017, 5G standards and R&D will make more substantial progress. Based on the successful completion of the first phase of 5G technology R&D trials, my country will organize the second phase of trials to fully support the development of a global unified 5G standard.

At present, the first phase of testing of my country's 5G technology research and development test has been successfully completed, and the second phase of testing will be carried out from June 2016 to September 2017. The second phase of testing will focus on the technical solutions for typical 5G scenarios to carry out single base station performance testing. In Q3 2017, the indoor and outdoor function and performance tests of 5G concept prototypes of different system equipment manufacturers will be completed. In Q4 2017, the standardized technical solutions for the 5G core network and the network technology testing of the 5G five-point access network will be completed. The second phase of testing will introduce chip/instrument manufacturers to carry out multi-party docking tests to promote the maturity of the 5G industry chain.

3GPP RAN plans to complete the 5G new interface technology pre-research in March 2017 and start 5G standardization. The first 5G standard version - R15 will be completed in June 2018, mainly supporting mobile broadband and low-latency and high-reliability scenarios. 3GPP SA2 is expected to complete the first version of the network architecture technical specification in December 2017. In Q1-Q3 of 2017, the architecture and function definitions will be completed first, such as the new architecture, slice selection, session, mobility, etc. In Q1-Q4 of 2017, the focus will be on completing the business process description. The technical pre-research of Phase II will be carried out simultaneously.

The newly revised "Radio Management Regulations of the People's Republic of China" continues to innovate frequency management

The newly revised "Radio Management Regulations of the People's Republic of China" has been signed by the State Council and the Central Military Commission and will be implemented from December 1, 2016. The promulgation of the new regulations is the biggest innovation in China in 2016. The main revisions to the "Regulations" include four points. First, the management system for the effective development and utilization of radio frequencies has been improved. Second, the administrative approval of radio frequencies has been reduced and standardized; third, the supervision during and after the event has been strengthened. Fourth, the punishment for illegal and criminal activities such as telecommunications fraud using "fake base stations" has been increased.