A survival guide for communications professionals

The situation in 2022 is more serious than expected.

Needless to say, the macroeconomic environment is obvious to all. From the perspective of the communications industry, the situation is not optimistic either - the large-scale construction of 5G is coming to an end. At present, except for the expansion of radio and television 5G, 5G indoor distribution, and transmission network capacity, the large-scale operator procurement will become less and less.

In other words, the cyclical investment in the communications industry has moved from peak to trough, and the revenue of industry companies will inevitably be affected.

As the operator market gradually cools down, the entire communications industry has begun to transform, taking the government and enterprise market as a new growth point and investing resources in layout in order to maintain future survival.

However, the difficulty of operating in the government and enterprise market is no less than that in the operator market. The complex customized scenarios, coupled with the extreme sensitivity to costs, make this a "tougher nut to crack." Moreover, in the context of a sluggish macro-economy, this market is even more difficult to open up.

There is no doubt that winter has arrived for the communications industry.

In the harsh winter, the work and life of all communications people will be impacted. Layoffs and unemployment will appear more and more around us. Every communications person should prepare for the worst.

In this article today, Xiaozaojun, as a person who has experienced it and a middle-aged communications worker who has lost his job, will talk to you seriously about how to deal with and prepare for unemployment, and give you some personal suggestions. If something unfortunate happens, you can also have a reference.

Differences in the probability of layoffs

The communications industry is huge, with many companies. Different types of companies have very different probabilities of layoffs.

As the upstream of the industry and state-owned enterprises, the probability of layoffs among the three major operators is very low, and at most they will just cut salaries. However, the probability of layoffs among equipment vendors, including state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, and foreign enterprises, in the next few years is very high. Not to mention subcontractors, which have never been low.

Several major equipment manufacturers in the communications industry currently have their own troubles.

As the largest equipment manufacturer, Huawei has been affected by US sanctions and its growth momentum has been curbed, so the situation is not very optimistic. In the future, Huawei's operating pressure will increase, and the possibility of large-scale layoffs in some product lines cannot be ruled out.

Several domestic equipment manufacturers other than Huawei have relatively small market shares and will benefit in the short term from the vacuum created by Huawei's market contraction. However, from a slightly longer-term perspective, the weakness of the overall communications market will eventually lead to a decline in the revenue of these equipment manufacturers, it's just a matter of time.

What is more serious is that under the influence of geopolitics, those inside cannot leave and those outside cannot enter, and a market pattern of "dividing the territory and governing it separately" has gradually formed. This situation is harmful to both domestic and foreign enterprises, equipment manufacturers and customers. It is difficult for a market that lacks fair and free competition to develop healthily.

As Chinese employees of foreign equipment manufacturers, the risk of unemployment has been the greatest in recent years.

Although foreign equipment manufacturers have repeatedly emphasized their perseverance, the decline in market share is inevitable under the general trend of domestic substitution, and corporate revenue will definitely decline. Long-term deficits will definitely lead to layoffs or scale reductions. Therefore, foreign equipment manufacturers need to pay special attention.

Refuse to be a screw

The larger the company, the easier it is to form a "small society" within the enterprise.

If employees work in a large company, they are "well-protected" by the company and tend to be slow to react to changes in the external environment and lack a sense of risk.

"Are your company's products popular? Are they selling well? What is your company's position in the competition with your rivals? Are there any new changes in the trends of the entire industry?..." Many employees do not understand this and just focus on doing their own work.

Some companies like to report good news but not bad news, and they send out promotional emails every day, saying that the company has won such and such bids, won such and such awards, and received such and such praise from customers. This makes internal employees lack a sense of crisis and think that the overall situation of the company is very good.

Xiaozaojun has said before that companies nowadays are very "smart" in hiring, especially large companies, which like to "use a small employee" - let him work in a specific position, embed him into the company's entire process, and be a "screw."

This is a "special screw". He may have strong business capabilities, but once he leaves the company, he will have nowhere to go. This in turn makes employees dependent on the company and reduces the turnover rate.

For many companies, using employees is a balancing act, as they don’t want their employees to be too weak, nor do they want their employees to be too strong. It is most beneficial for the company to turn its employees into “special screws”.

From the perspective of an employee, the company can treat you as a screw, but you must not treat yourself as a screw. An excellent employee should not only do the things at hand, but also have the ability to do things end to end, be able to actively coordinate the resources of various departments, be competent for multiple roles, work with brains, get things done, and do it to perfection.

Layoffs are for everyone

Regarding layoffs, many people think that their department’s performance is good and they are old employees or backbones of the department, so they will never be the ones to be laid off.

This kind of thinking is very dangerous. When the times abandon you, they won't say goodbye.

Nowadays, when companies are laying off employees, more and more of them are "whole-system" layoffs, that is, the entire department or the entire product line is laid off. As the saying goes, "When the nest is overturned, how can the eggs remain intact?" If you encounter this kind of situation, no one can escape.

Good performance of a department does not mean good performance of the department. Good performance of a department does not mean good performance of the company. Good performance of a branch does not mean good performance of the parent company. In short, under the pressure of performance, the company's top management needs to consider the safety of the entire company. Every department or an entire product line may become a sacrifice.

After the decision to lay off employees is made, company leaders and HR need to face the decision of whether to stay or leave hundreds, thousands or even tens of thousands of people. It is impossible to make proper arrangements for everyone and it will only be a one-size-fits-all approach.

When companies lay off employees now, they emphasize "short, flat and fast" - suddenly calling you for an interview, announcing it on the spot, signing on the spot, and then within an hour, you have to pack up and leave, and your rights are blocked. This is a very cruel process, and it can happen to anyone.

In fact, not to mention the middle or grassroots levels, even the senior levels are at high risk of unemployment now.

The unemployment of senior executives is mostly due to fierce power and factional struggles. Sometimes, when senior executives fail in the struggle and leave, a lot of personnel changes will occur. The so-called "a new emperor, a new minister" is happening every day.

What preparations are needed?

Whether the company lays off employees is not something that employees can decide. However, employees can make corresponding preparations in advance when facing the potential risk of unemployment.

The value of employees can be summed up in two words: ability and resources.

Regarding ability, many people think that since I have been doing this for more than ten years, my ability must be fine. In fact, this is not necessarily true. Many people's ability is not as strong as imagined. The reason why the company hired you is mostly because you are familiar with it.

Young people today are very capable. It only takes them a short time to get familiar with your work. Their learning ability and energy are stronger than yours, and their competitiveness in the workplace is far better than yours.

Nowadays, the reason why there are a lot of "inverted" salaries in the communications industry (new employees' salaries are higher than old employees') is because technology is updated too quickly. Young people are willing to work overtime, study, and travel, and they are quick to accept new things and are more easily brainwashed. Therefore, companies prefer to employ young people. Employees over 35 years old often become a burden to the company.

There is a common phenomenon in the domestic workplace that many people are not willing to continue learning and updating their knowledge.

Many of us have been accustomed to intensive study since childhood. In order to get a higher education or a job, they can work very hard, read books, and stay up late. However, once they succeed, they quickly give up the study habit and reduce the study intensity from 200% to 10%.

In other words, many people learn based on short-term goals, rather than long-term goals. Without a clear goal, they will not learn and are unwilling to actively accept new knowledge. They enter their comfort zone very quickly.

Nowadays, many companies only care about hiring people but not training them, which is also one of the causes of the problem.

As mentioned above, small-scale companies do not want their employees to improve their abilities in all aspects, but only want them to do their jobs well. Therefore, they deliberately limit the growth of their employees.

Moreover, some companies set a heavy workload for their employees, deliberately making them very hard-working, tired, and numb, thereby depriving them of the time and passion for learning.

In fact, it is very useful to leave 20% of free time for employees. Only when employees have free time will they summarize and review, think about how to improve their work, and put forward reasonable suggestions.

In terms of improving their abilities, many people learn everything out of anxiety, thinking that if they pay for the course, they have learned it, and if they listen, they have understood it. This is obviously wrong.

If you don't use a piece of knowledge for a long time, you will forget it. A person's learning direction also needs to be carefully considered. It can be based on one's own interests, one's own judgment of industry trends, or one's own career planning. Anyway, it should not be out of anxiety, let alone following the trend or showing off.

Let’s talk about resources.

China is a typical relationship-based society, so in most cases, resources are more important than capabilities.

The domestic system is not a completely market-oriented system. In most industries, state-owned enterprises are the dominant force. This determines that the survival of enterprises is not entirely determined by products and services, but by other complex factors.

Why do companies not respect technical talents? On the one hand, China's long-term demographic dividend has brought about a labor dividend and an engineer dividend, so supply exceeds demand, resulting in cheap talent costs. On the other hand, in the corporate market competition, technical talents often cannot bring the same value as business resource talents.

This is the main reason why the internal market of an enterprise is often stronger than R&D. It is not because of user demand, but because marketers play a greater role in resources and project success. In other words, everyone's products are actually similar, it just depends on who has a stronger relationship with the customer. Problems that cannot be solved by equipment can often be solved at the dinner table. What really determines the market share is often not the quality of the product, or even the price, but other factors.

The awareness of protecting intellectual property rights in China is very poor, and the law cannot provide strong support. What small businesses have worked hard to produce can be easily copied by large enterprises using manpower or funds. This atmosphere and environment cannot incubate truly competitive innovation. Without an innovative business environment, there is no long-term competitiveness. When relationships are greater than technology and demand, technical talents will always be suppressed. In terms of core competitiveness, we will never catch up with our foreign competitors.

We've strayed off topic, let's get back to talking about unemployment.

From a realistic perspective, if communications professionals want to cope with the risk of unemployment, they must update and reserve their capabilities on the one hand, and tap resources on the other. Step out of your own small circle, step out of your comfort zone, overcome social phobia, strive to form intersections with more circles, expand your knowledge system, and refresh your understanding of things. This is the advice I can give.

Of course, Xiaozaojun is not telling you to make friends everywhere. In fact, everyone will find that there are many social processes based on resource exchange in society now, which are very utilitarian. This kind of social interaction should be a small part of your entire social life, not all of it.

Your existing abilities and resources are your capital to integrate into other people's circles. Knowing others does not mean that they will help you. If others find that you have no abilities and no resources, they will quickly exclude you from the circle. Socializing based on common interests, common values, and information sharing will be more valuable and more vital.

What if I get laid off?

Finally, what should you do if you are really laid off?

If you are suddenly laid off, you should first keep calm and not panic. Then, you should quickly assess your current situation.

Everyone should be able to cope with "six months of zero income". It is crucial to know whether you and your family can handle six months of no income.

The biggest derivative risk of unemployment is mortgage default.

Telecom workers over 35 years old generally have certain assets and savings. If we ignore the loan factor, most people will have no problem with their short- and medium-term living even if they lose their jobs.

The main fear is loan defaults, which is very scary (there are a lot of foreclosures on the market now, and there are a lot of news reports about defaults, which everyone should have seen), and will cause great economic losses. Therefore, if you have a loan, you must prepare cash flow in advance, just in case. If necessary, open the credit lines of various banks for backup.

The current situation of the property market is also quite delicate, with policies being relaxed in various places. There is definitely demand, but it is not necessarily as high as imagined, and it is mainly concentrated in first-tier cities. People have a habit of buying things, that is, "buy when prices are high and not when prices are low." The more the price drops, the less people will buy.

Whether real estate is still the first choice for asset preservation needs to be observed. I personally am not too optimistic. With the demographic inflection point, it is inevitable that supply will exceed demand. Good houses will continue to rise in price, but it is hard to say outside first-tier cities.

If you don’t have the pressure of defaulting on your loan, it will be much better, at least you won’t be so panic. If you are laid off, on the one hand, you should try your best to get the most reasonable compensation for yourself, on the other hand, you can choose to take a break or find another job as soon as possible according to your own situation.

In the past, I would have suggested starting a business. But now, I don’t dare to say that anymore. The macroeconomic situation is too bad, and the success rate of starting a business is too low. If things go wrong, you may lose all your savings.

Even if you are planning to start your own business, I think you should start by following a friend, investing a little money, and testing the waters. Then when the conditions are right, you can start on your own.

I personally think that men must have their own careers after they turn 40. Working for others all your life and being scolded by a younger boss in your 40s is a bit boring.

If you are looking for a new buyer, now is the time to leverage your resource advantages.

My personal suggestion is that when looking for a new job at this time, don't be too picky. You can adopt the mentality of "looking for a job while you are still working", and do the right job first, and then see if there is a better one. Especially if you are under great financial pressure (you have a mortgage), it is safer to have a suitable job first.

As for whether to change industries, it still depends on personal career planning. Industries are dead, but people are alive. Don't let go of opportunities and don't let the industry limit you.

The communications industry is relatively narrow, and the development space is not large. There are only a few large companies in the industry, and there is little room for choice. The information industry is much larger in comparison, and there are many small and medium-sized enterprises, with an obvious sponge effect, which is suitable for occupying a niche. There are still many opportunities for government and enterprise digitalization, and the threshold is very low. People with a background in the communications industry are familiar with it.

Conclusion

Well, that’s all I wanted to say today.

The most important thing in life is to plan ahead. If you want to be less passive in times of crisis, the best option is to prepare in advance.

Work and life are boring, and it is easy to make people numb. Boiling a frog in warm water is the state of many communications people now, especially middle-aged communications people. Many of my former colleagues are in this state. I am a special case. I chose to "actively lose my job" on impulse, which can be regarded as a blessing in disguise. In the past few years, I have gained far more than before I was unemployed. I don't regret it, but I am very fortunate.

Many people feel that they cannot bear unemployment. In fact, this is too much of an underestimation of oneself. Everyone has strong energy. Sometimes, pushing yourself can stimulate your energy and create a new world. Therefore, even if you are unemployed, it really doesn't matter. Life is a long journey. If you are not welcome here, there will be other places that will welcome you.

Come on! Communications people!