To ensure the healthy development of 5G, we must start with the standardization of business data release

On the eve of the Spring Festival, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) released a "Notice on Improving 5G Service Quality" on its official website. In response to the problems of unilaterally exaggerating 5G advantages, misleading users to "be 5G", and removing 4G packages in the current promotion of 5G packages, it clearly requires communication operators to "improve four reminder mechanisms, fully guarantee users' right to know" and "strictly abide by four marketing red lines, and effectively safeguard users' rights and interests". The MIIT's notice gave timely concern and response to the strange 5G marketing phenomenon that has aroused widespread social concern. The proposed improvement measures are practical and feasible, and a follow-up supervision and implementation mechanism has been arranged, which is worthy of praise.

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While standardizing operators' 5G user development work, the MIIT also specifically required in the notice that "all basic telecommunications companies must submit 5G business development data in accordance with the requirements." Although it did not elaborate on the specific requirements for "5G business development data reporting," the introduction of this requirement is also very timely and necessary in view of the various problems that exist in the current release of operators' user data, such as inconsistent standards and inflated publicity.

First, the standards for operators to release user data are confusing.

The three major operators publish user data on their official websites every month; the Operation Monitoring and Coordination Bureau under the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also routinely publishes the monthly "Economic Operation of the Communications Industry" and the annual "Communication Industry Statistical Bulletin" based on the user data reports of the three major operators, forming official data with high authority and industry guidance. However, due to the inconsistent standards for publishing user data of the three major operators, there are often contradictions and conflicts between them and the official data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

Among the three major operators, China Mobile announces the "total number of mobile business customers", "number of 4G customers" and "number of 5G package users" each month respectively; China Telecom "only discloses the number of 5G package users and mobile users, and no longer discloses 4G user data"; and China Unicom only "focuses on billed mobile users (generally refers to users who contribute revenue in the current month) and 4G users (billed mobile users who hold 4G terminals and use the company's 4G network)", and notes that "mobile business data includes the number of 5G users."

Since China Unicom does not announce the "number of 5G package users" like China Mobile and China Telecom, the "2020 Communications Industry Statistical Bulletin" of the Operation Monitoring and Coordination Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology still has no authoritative 5G user data released more than a year after 5G commercial use, but only discloses that the total number of mobile phone users and 4G users nationwide in 2020 were 1.594 billion and 1.289 billion, respectively.

However, the total number of mobile phone users in the MIIT's communications industry statistics is inconsistent with the total number of mobile users announced by the three major operators. Considering that in addition to the three major operators, the total number of mobile users counted by the MIIT should also include the number users of virtual operators outside the three major operators, it is normal that the MIIT's data should be higher than the data of the three major operators. However, the total number of mobile users nationwide in the MIIT's statistics is 4.68 million less than the total number of mobile users of the three major operators!

Although the missing 4.68 million users is a small number compared to the total number of nearly 1.6 billion users, it is by no means a small number. According to the provincial data on telephone users released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, there are 3.22 million mobile phone users in Tibet and 6.59 million mobile phone users in Qinghai. Therefore, the deviation between the statistics of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the data released by the three major operators is not so small that it can be ignored.

In addition, although only China Mobile and China Telecom disclosed that the number of their 5G package users reached 165 million and 81.89 million respectively as of the end of 2020, their standards for their relationship with 4G users seem to be different.

China Mobile announced that its total number of mobile business customers in 2020 was 942 million, of which 775 million were 4G customers; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology statistics showed that the total number of 4G users nationwide in 2020 was 1.289 billion, and China Unicom announced that its number of 4G users was 270 million. It can be inferred that China Telecom, which "no longer discloses 4G user data", should have 244 million 4G users among its 351 million mobile users. Based on these data, the mobile user structure of China Mobile and China Telecom is shown in the figure below:

It can be seen that China Telecom's user data and proportion structure are relatively reasonable and objective. As of the end of 2019, China Telecom announced that the number of 4G users was 281 million, and other 2/3G users were 55 million; after a year of development, by the end of 2020, its total number of mobile users increased from 336 million to 351 million. Although only 15.45 million new users were added, due to the conversion of 86.5 million users to 5G package users, its 4G users dropped from 281 million to 243 million, and other 2/3G users dropped from 55 million to 21.24 million.

On the other hand, the user share structure of China Mobile is very unreasonable. China Mobile announced that the total number of mobile business customers as of the end of 2019 was 950 million, and the total number of 4G customers was 758 million, which means that it still had 192 million other 2/3G customers at the end of 2019. However, after a year of development to the end of 2020, the total number of China Mobile's mobile business customers dropped from 950 million to 942 million. In addition to the addition of 165 million 5G package users, 4G users also increased from 758 million to 775 million. In the meantime, how could other 2/3G customers drop from 192 million to 1.61 million?

Since China Mobile did not launch any major marketing initiatives for 2/3G users to switch networks in 2020, it is extremely unreasonable that 192 million 2/3G users disappeared out of thin air. The possible reason is speculated by the industry: the 5G package users announced by China Mobile are also counted as 4G users. The two are in an inclusive relationship, not a parallel relationship like China Telecom. In this way, the user share structure of China Mobile is more reasonable.

It can be seen that there are still deviations in the statistical caliber of user data between the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the three major operators, and China Mobile and China Telecom have no unified standards for the relationship between 4G users and 5G package users. These deviations and inconsistencies have brought considerable challenges to the objectivity of user data in measuring the development of my country's mobile communications industry.

Secondly, the operators’ 5G user development data is seriously inflated.

Since the full commercialization of 5G, communication operators including China Mobile and China Telecom have creatively used "5G package users" as business indicators and, through marketing methods such as limited-time discounts on tariffs, have developed 252 million "5G package users" in just one year by the end of 202 to promote their 5G performance.

However, comparing with the authoritative 5G mobile phone domestic market shipment report released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, it can be seen that since the launch of 5G mobile phone access in July 2019, as of the end of December 2020, the total shipments of 5G mobile phones in the domestic market in my country were less than 177 million units.

That is to say, among the 252 million 5G package users announced by China Mobile and China Telecom, at least more than 75 million users do not use 5G mobile phones. From the data comparison in the figure below, the proportion of 5G mobile phone shipments in the announced 5G package users in my country's domestic market has remained at around 70% for a long time, so the so-called "5G user" propaganda of China Mobile and China Telecom is at least 30% inflated!

These so-called "5G users" who do not use 5G mobile phones have not accessed the operator's 5G network and do not enjoy the operator's 5G services. They simply create a false 5G prosperity for the operators as a publicity achievement of 5G.

Finally, the statistical caliber of 5G industry data is missing.

Among the 252 million 5G package users announced by China Mobile and China Telecom, how many users have accessed the operators' 5G networks is an important indicator for the industry to pay attention to the development of China's 5G. At the State Council Information Office press conference held on December 24, 2020, Wen Ku, the former spokesperson of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, gave a new statement, announcing that "the number of 5G terminal connections in my country has exceeded 200 million."

On January 18, 2021, at a press conference on the operation of the national economy in 2020 held by the State Council Information Office, Ning Jizhe, Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, announced that "the number of 5G terminal connections in my country has exceeded 200 million, ranking first in the world." As a result, "the number of 5G terminal connections exceeds 200 million" has become a high-standard official statistical data.

However, neither the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology nor the National Bureau of Statistics has given a specific definition and scope for "5G terminal connections". According to the authoritative release of the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the total number of 5G mobile phone shipments in my country's domestic market by the end of 2020 was 177 million. Even if all these 177 million 5G mobile phones were put into use, the number of online connections would be less than 200 million. Therefore, it can be judged that the scope of 5G terminals connected to the network in the official statistical caliber is larger than that of 5G mobile phones.

According to the report of CCID think tank, in addition to smartphones, 5G terminals include traditional terminals such as indoor and outdoor CPE, modules, hotspots, adapters, as well as industry application terminals such as 5G robots, drones, industrial CPE, and vehicle-mounted modules. The widespread use of these industry application terminals in the fields of medical education, ultra-high-definition production and broadcasting, industrial Internet, and Internet of Vehicles marks the shift of communication technology represented by 5G from To C consumer market to To B industry application, which is an important indicator for empowering vertical industries.

As Miao Wei, former Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said, "For the majority of users, 4G mobile phones are enough, and 4G is enough for most applications; 80% of the real application scenarios of 5G should be used in communication between things, such as the industrial Internet." The mission of 5G in China is to serve as a new generation of information infrastructure for building the Internet of Everything, enabling industrial upgrading and economic transformation, and laying a communication foundation for vertical industries by promoting the widespread use of information network technology, promoting the upgrading of industries such as the Internet of Vehicles and the Industrial Internet, and promoting the development and maturity of related industries in China.

Therefore, compared with the number of 5G package users "inflated" by China Mobile and China Telecom, the number of 5G terminal connections, especially the number of non-mobile 5G terminal connections, is an indicator of greater strategic significance for measuring the development status of China's 5G industry and guiding the development direction of China's 5G industry!

Therefore, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which is responsible for "promoting the integrated development of informatization and industrialization", needs to emphasize the importance of non-mobile 5G terminal connections in the notice that "all basic telecommunications companies must submit 5G business development data as required" and require telecommunications companies to make special statistics and announce them to the public. This will be a strong impetus and supervision for related communications companies and vertical industries to increase the promotion of 5G technology for industry and industry.

Conclusion

At the beginning of the new year, everything is new. my country's 5G industry development has taken the lead in the world; but to take the mission of leading the development of the global 5G industry, we need to do a good job in reporting and statistics of 5G and other communication business development data to ensure the objectivity and credibility of data release. Therefore, while giving a thumbs up to the notice of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, we also hope that the notice of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology can play its due administrative role and play a role in correcting and protecting the healthy development of 5G and other communication businesses.