Forecast of China's Internet Market Development Trends in 2021

As the COVID-19 pandemic is gradually brought under control, the Chinese and global economies are back on track, and digitalization has played a huge role in this process. As the foundation of digital connections, the network has also entered a new stage of development. Whether it is the market development process, the technology evolution route, or the transformation of business models, the Chinese network market has played an important role in it. Looking ahead, the network will pay more attention to the reliability of services and applications, efficiency improvement, and better experience. Based on this, IDC has made relevant forecasts for the Chinese network market in 2021 and presented them in the form of data charts.

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Market Development

Prediction 1: China's Internet market growth rate will continue to lead the world in the next five years

Affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, the global network (including Ethernet switches, routers and wireless LAN, the same below) market declined year-on-year in 2020. However, China's network market remained positive year-on-year due to effective epidemic control and economic growth resilience. Looking ahead to 2021 and the next few years, China's network market will enter a medium-speed growth era, but it will still be a country with relatively fast growth in the world.

Prediction 2: Upgrading and segmented scenario demands will be the main growth points in the future

After years of construction, the era of network popularization has passed, and the next few years will be dominated by the demand for upgrading. In addition, there are new opportunities in the subdivision scenarios of major industries. With the transformation of China's economy, the demand for network construction of enterprises represented by science and technology will increase, such as the field of new infrastructure; the new development pattern of dual circulation will help the rise of consumer and service companies, which contains opportunities for network construction; with the launch of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the information technology application innovation industry will receive strong support, which will also bring more investment in network construction funds.

Technological evolution

Prediction 3: By 2024, 100G port revenue will exceed other rates

The rapid growth of data has not seen a clear turning point, and the construction of large and super-large data centers is still very fast. In terms of speed, the revenue of 100G ports is getting bigger and bigger, and will exceed any other port speed. In the domestic market, 50G has not been widely used. It is expected that in the next few years, it will be directly upgraded from 25G to 100G, and then to 400G.

Prediction 4: Wi-Fi 6 and POL are the driving forces for campus network development

It is expected that by 2021, Wi-Fi 6 will account for more revenue than Wi-Fi 5 and will gradually replace it in the following years. Wi-Fi 6 and subsequent 6E and Wi-Fi 7 are all designed to improve the quality of campus wireless communications to adapt to the wave of mobility. In terms of short-distance, large-capacity wireless coverage in campuses, Wi-Fi still has irreplaceable technical and commercial advantages.

In terms of campus wired networks, all-optical LAN (POL) is growing rapidly. In the context of simplifying network access as much as possible, users are motivated to migrate to optical networks, especially in multi-user operation and maintenance, multi-service carrying and industrial environments, where the advantages of POL can be better utilized.

Prediction 5: SD-WAN will have a compound growth rate of more than 50% in the next five years

Whether it is a software or hardware infrastructure product or a service subscription, SD-WAN has been well received by users since its launch, and its growth rate is much higher than that of traditional network hardware. Multi-branch interconnection, cloud services, application optimization and cross-border access are the main application scenarios of SD-WAN, which brings customers the value of simplified operation and maintenance, cost savings and network acceleration.

Business transformation

Prediction 6: Distribution will grow from 20% to 30% of the enterprise network market

Network products are becoming more and more mature, and the sales of some mid- and low-end products are gradually moving closer to consumer products. The proportion of distribution sales models is gradually increasing, and some companies are beginning to try online models, using short videos and live broadcasts to better fit the habits of the new digital generation. At the same time, the demand for network construction in some small and medium-sized enterprises and underdeveloped regions is gradually increasing. It is difficult for these customers to use traditional sales models, so it also helps the penetration of distribution models.

Prediction 7: Cloud management networks will foster enterprise service purchasing awareness

The development of cloud has changed the way manufacturers reach users. As traditional business models are affected, cloud-managed networks are showing signs of rapid growth. There are more and more cloud-native enterprises and cloud-native applications, which has changed the business model of enterprises and made it easier for enterprises to accept the way of purchasing network services. Cloud-managed networks bring more than just changes in the decoupling of product management functions. Their greater value is that they have changed the operation mode of traditional networks.