Current Affairs | How many cards does the US have left to crush China’s 5G?

In the battle for 5G, China has gained a first-mover advantage. This makes the United States feel uneasy. As early as April 2019, its Ministry of Defense issued a related report. It focused on analyzing the development of 5G, the current situation of major countries in the world competing for 5G dominance, and the impact and challenges of 5G on US national security. It also focused on analyzing China's advantages in the 5G field. Finally, it put forward its own views on spectrum policy, supply chain and infrastructure. This also became one of the incentives for Trump to use all means to crack down on Huawei and delay China's 5G development.

The great value of 5G is not limited to the commercial field. It will also play a huge role in future military operations. In particular, network interconnection, information communication at the tactical edge of the battlefield, and the ability of the Ministry of Defense to make strategic decisions. In particular, it is of great significance to the interconnection of multiple systems in the defense field and the realization of faster information sharing. For example, supersonic and hypersonic defense, elastic satellite networking and multi-hop networks.

At present, the main weapon of the United States to delay the development of China's 5G lies in chips. The management system of the 5G core network requires computing chips and storage chips, and the base station needs management and control chips. Mobile phones need mobile phone chips, baseband chips and storage chips, and even in the future era of the Internet of Things, various terminals relying on 5G will also need sensor chips. In such a huge system, China is still at a disadvantage. This is also the main means that the United States relies on to crush China. But today's international environment is no longer 1900. International division of labor and cooperation have brought countries to the point of mutual integration. The United States has imposed sanctions on China on chips, and its domestic industrial chain will inevitably suffer a serious blow. In addition, from the global trend of 5G development, even if China loses American chips, it will not necessarily fall behind... However, the disadvantages of the United States cannot be compensated by this. Specifically, what are the disadvantages of the United States?

Spectrum is the cornerstone of 5G, but it is also the US’s weakness

The United States' disadvantage lies first in spectrum. In the development of 5G, spectrum is the most basic and critical link, which will directly affect the peak data rate of 5G. In the 4G era, a maximum of five 20 MHz channels can be connected, but in the 5G era, five 100 MHz channels can be connected, and the speed will be more than 20 times that of 4G.

There are currently two mainstream 5G spectrums in the world. One is Sub-6, which is commonly used in China and Europe, and its frequency bands are mainly concentrated in 3GHz and 4GHz. The second is the frequency band between 24~300GHz, also known as millimeter wave. This is the main method currently used in the United States, South Korea and Japan. Compared with millimeter wave, the main advantage of Sub-6 is that it has a wider propagation range, can achieve a wider range of signal coverage with fewer base stations, and has stronger performance. In fact, it is not that US operators are unaware that Sub-6 is a more optimized solution, but the 3GHz and 4GHz spectrums are currently the "royal" frequency bands of the US federal government, especially being widely used by the Department of Defense, so civilians are not allowed to get involved.

What are the ways for the United States to compete for 5G dominance?

In this case, if the United States wants to regain the initiative in the 5G field, there are only two ways. The first is to continue to explore millimeter waves and persuade major countries in the world to comply with American standards. But at the moment, it seems that except for Japan and South Korea, most of its European allies have stood with China and chosen Sub-6. Because other countries do not have restrictions on the use of Sub-6. Since the leadership of wireless networks needs to be recognized by the global market and must follow the norms of leaders, otherwise it can only sing its own song. So it is obvious that if the United States continues to go its own way, it will probably find that not only will the foundation of the global 5G communication supply chain no longer exist, but it will also face challenges in the universality of millimeter wave equipment and the security of Sub-6 infrastructure.

Then the only solution left is to seek compromise. However, China has become a leader in the Sub-6 field, which is obviously difficult for the United States to accept, because in the future 5G network, the United States must rely heavily on Chinese equipment and technical standards to build the network, which will greatly increase the risk of leaks during the US overseas military deployment, and even pose a security threat. Even if the United States can block Chinese equipment and technology from the US market through administrative means, China's own market of 1.4 billion people is enough to push the 5G era in the direction China hopes, and other markets such as Europe and America will follow suit. At the same time, restricting the use of Chinese equipment will also damage the supply chain balance of various industries in the United States.

What impact will containing China have on the United States?

China's first batch of Sub-6 network services are expected to be put into use in 2020. This will increase the performance of domestic smartphone, telecommunications equipment suppliers, semiconductor and system suppliers, and significantly expand the market size. As other major countries in the world follow suit at a faster pace, China's smartphone products and Internet application services will replace the United States' advantages at this stage and take the lead.

There was once an assumption in the United States' own report that due to limited influence and high costs, the possibility of large-scale deployment of millimeter waves in the United States is low. Sub-6 will become the global standard for wide area networks in the next few years. In addition, the commercial profit-seeking of American telecom operators and equipment suppliers will also limit the development of millimeter wave networks. After all, the huge expenditure on infrastructure construction is a nightmare for many small and medium-sized telecommunications companies in the United States. The Hong Kong "South China Morning Post" once wrote in April that the United States is anxious to maintain its technological innovation advantage and even takes action to prevent other countries from using 5G equipment from Chinese companies in their networks.

Currently in the United States, only Qualcomm can provide a relatively mature 5G solution, and it is only a 5G terminal solution. However, in China, Huawei can already provide a complete solution from 5G terminals to the central office. At the same time, Huawei's base stations are also in a leading position in the world in terms of size and power consumption. Its core "Tiangang" chip is very powerful in terms of integration and computing power. The overall performance is 2.5 times higher than that of the previous generation, and the volume is reduced by 55%, and the weight is reduced by 23%. It is said that the weight of a single device is only 20 kilograms. It can enable 90% of the world's base stations to upgrade to 5G standards without changing the power supply method. And because of the wider coverage, the number of base stations can be reduced by half.

Compared with China, the United States has little to show for this area. Although its telecom operator Verizon has launched the world's first 5G commercial mobile service network that can be used with smartphones. But from the actual test results, its results are embarrassing. Users often complain about coverage difficulties and low signals. Not only that, the signal coverage of this 5G network in the United States is obviously blocked by buildings, and the signal attenuation is serious in front of the building and in the lobby. Although the strongest signal can reach the operator's promised value of 600 megabits per second (Mbps), sometimes it is only 200Mbps, and the lowest rate is even similar to 4G.

In summary, 5G is a huge system that requires the joint efforts of multiple parties to form an advantage. At present, the United States' advantage mainly lies in chips, which is also its main weapon to strangle China, while Europe is strong in the system. The United States' current disadvantage is also due to its incomplete industrial chain. Relying solely on government willpower or simple and rough hooliganism cannot solve the problem at all. China is strong in the comprehensive strength of the industrial chain. Although chips are a disadvantage, thanks to Huawei's "spare tire plan", it is not nothing at present. The value of 5G for China is far from the superficial increase in network speed or the value of the communications industry itself. It will play a role in social efficiency, international status, and even in many aspects such as information security, and will greatly affect national strength in the future. As long as we grit our teeth and survive the current difficulties, it is not far-fetched to lead the world in the future.