Don’t rush to fight for 5G

Recently, discussions about 5G have been everywhere.

But in my opinion, this craze came a little too early.

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It’s not that the future of 5G is not bright, but I want to emphasize that 5G is still in its infancy and requires all parties in the industry chain to work together to expand the pie and strengthen technical capabilities. Given the current industrial structure and technological maturity, 5G is not yet at the stage where it can attack each other and divide up the territory.

Technical standards need to be accelerated

On June 13, 2018, 3GPP issued the following news: The 3GPP 5G NR standard solution was officially completed and released at the 80th 3GPP TSG RAN Plenary Meeting.

According to the statement at the time of release: The release of the R15 version of the technical standard marks the official release of the first truly complete international 5G standard.

Many people do not understand those restrictive adjectives and think that the technical standards for 5G are mature. However, industry insiders point out that this standard does not fully realize 5G and still needs to be revised, improved and supplemented, so the 5G standard is not complete.

The so-called completeness is only relative to the previously defined non-independent networking. Operators can use this set of standards to build 5G networks. However, to fully realize our current vision of 5G, we have to wait until at least the R16 version, which is scheduled to be completed in March 2020.

Among the three major scenarios of 5G, the R15 version mainly supports the eMBB scenario, which is enhanced mobile broadband, with faster speed; for uRLLC (low latency), the one-way delay of the air interface on the user side is reduced to about 0.8ms, which meets the 5G requirement of 1ms delay. It should be said that this is already a very big improvement.

However, industry customers have more expectations for 5G. They need an end-to-end 5G network with high speed, low latency, good coverage and high availability. What excites them most is the network slicing technology, which can cut a private network from the public wireless communication network, bringing huge imagination space to the industry.

During the communication, I found that the perfect 5G network and even the AI, VR, AR and other technologies expanded from it have made industry customers understand that these are the basic characteristics after the arrival of 5G, and they are ready to develop upper-level applications and expand business models based on them.

This expectation puts tremendous pressure on the communications industry.

Unlike the Internet industry, the communication network requires different manufacturers and enterprises to interconnect based on standards. Therefore, for the communication industry, the formulation and release of technical standards is the beginning of everything, and there are still many actions to be taken after that.

For example, equipment manufacturers need to design and develop products according to technical standards, and then conduct network testing to form mature products. Operators need to select and purchase equipment, and then gradually expand the construction scale to network and deliver equipment manufacturers' products for commercial use.

I'm afraid this time will not be short.

Even if tens of billions of dollars are invested to build a complete communication network, it is not enough. However, the current R15 version is a transition, and the R16 version will not be released until next year. Under such a pace, operators will inevitably take a wait-and-see attitude, because the risk of large-scale network construction is too great.

Therefore, if we want to truly accelerate the progress of 5G, acceleration in the field of standards is currently the most critical.

But there is another problem: although the technicians responsible for standards are working overtime, the key to solving the problem is not in their hands.

Technical standards used to be an arena for enterprises, and the purpose of technical discussions and patent positioning was to gain greater benefits for enterprises. But now is the time to make cakes, and all parties involved should be aware of the severity of the time issue. If the development of the 5G industry stalls, the industry's high expectations for 5G are delayed, and premature investment ends up in vain, will anyone be willing to play 5G with you?

Industrial ecology needs to be strengthened

There is close cooperation between competitors. This delicate relationship is rare among 2C manufacturers, but it is ubiquitous in the 2B field.

When do we work together to make the cake, and when do we fight to the death to divide the cake? Ultimately, it all comes down to interests. If you fail to grasp the rhythm, you will suffer a loss. If you don't play the game this way, you will lose the qualification to participate.

Without cooperation, the cost of technology research and development will be higher, the cycle will be longer, the industry pie will not be bigger, and the relevant manufacturers will all be losers; and if they act selflessly and do the same as Lei Feng, without guarding against the small actions of competitors, they will inevitably suffer losses in the fierce competition.

A few days ago, Qualcomm and Apple reached a settlement, and Intel withdrew from the research and development of baseband chips, which was a major event in the 5G industry ecosystem.

The communications industry ecosystem initially existed in the form of an ecological chain, with many links interconnected, and the relationships among them may not be clear to many insiders.

For example, both are 5G chips, Balong 5000 is a baseband chip, and Kirin 980 is a mobile phone processor. What is the relationship between the two? Many people in the industry may not be able to answer this question.

Because 5G is so hot and there is so much to watch, coupled with the fact that science and engineering men are too obsessed with their own technology, these professional terms and technical details that were originally only needed to be understood by professionals in specific fields are increasingly being presented to ordinary people.

From baseband chips to terminals, it is only one branch of the 5G industry chain. The construction of 5G also includes wireless networks, core networks, and popular edge computing and network slicing. The wireless side has many knowledge points such as air interfaces, spectrum resources, and base stations. This is not the end. If we take into account the operation links and upper-level applications, more industry players will participate.

In the past, communication networks were relatively closed, and the relationships within the industrial chain were relatively simple. Technical experts set standards, equipment manufacturers produced communication equipment, operators built networks and operated them, and users purchased and used terminals. Players only needed to focus on the industrial chain in their own fields, as well as upstream and downstream companies.

However, the situation of 5G has changed now: perhaps because of the heated public opinion, or perhaps because of the industry's vision for the future, more and more people are paying attention to 5G, but they do not understand how big and complex the 5G industry is.

Looking at 5G in a blind man's elephant-like way and rushing into 5G can easily lead to the illusion that what they are doing is the most innovative and difficult part of the 5G industry, while other conditions are already in place.

In fact, the entire 5G industry chain is in its early stages, and all parties must increase communication and consultation to put the pieces together as quickly as possible.

Therefore, the industrial chain evolves into an industrial ecosystem. Industrial cooperation is not only about the connection between upstream and downstream enterprises, but also about the extensive exchanges and cooperation between different roles to expand the industrial pie. In this process, it is not ruled out that the traditional cooperation model will be broken to reorganize the industrial ecosystem with the goal of promoting the maturity of 5G.

Conclusion

Today, 5G is no longer just about the industry, but is the focus of competition at the national level. Opportunities are not only domestic; the cake of globalization is more tempting, so we should first work together to make the cake bigger and then divide the cake harmoniously.

For mature companies, at this stage they should first focus on expanding the 5G industry space and accelerating the process of 5G commercialization, and then consider the specific market share and how to profit from 5G.

If the cake fails to be made, all participants will be losers in the end.