One year after 5G commercialization, the terminal hardware market still has ten times more room to grow

In nine days, China's 5G commercialization will celebrate its first anniversary. At this point in time, some people have begun to reflect on the degree of acceptance of 5G. Regardless of the degree of acceptance, there is still ten times the room for terminal hardware to improve. Looking back at history, 5G faces the following problems:

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The transition from 3G to 4G was far more chaotic than it is today

Compared with today's three major 5G operators moving forward in unison, the era of 3G to 4G in 2008 was even more chaotic. In 2014, China Mobile obtained the TD-LTE 4G license, but it was not until a year later that the other two operators obtained the 4G license. Regardless of whether this approach was reasonable at the time, the user experience of 3G to 4G one year later was also miserable.

However, the biggest difference between the 4G era and the 5G era is that users need to switch from traditional SIM cards to new USIM cards. In the early years, with the popularization of smartphone hardware, many users have already converted their cards to USIM cards, and the emergence of 4G networks has accelerated this process, which means that the current 5G application situation is normal.

Terminal hardware still has 10 times the market space

At present, the total sales volume of 5G mobile phones in the Chinese market is 107 million, and the number of 5G users has long exceeded 150 million. Logically speaking, this scale of application groups has exceeded half of the US market, but there is still a huge 5G mobile phone market space in China with 10 times of room for expansion. Such data has reflected another problem. The final hardware manufacturers are naturally an opportunity to show their talents, but for the development of the entire 5G industry, it is not just numbers that can explain it:

5G technology is far from mature

Last week, Wu Hequan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, talked about the development of 5G in the past year at a conference. He believes that although China's 5G commercialization has achieved certain results, it still faces many problems. The problems that have emerged since the commercialization of 5G are concentrated in the following three points: immature technology, high operating costs, and difficulty in digesting costs. Therefore, looking back on the past year, 5G technology has developed, matured, and popularized.

Insufficient development of industrial application scenarios

Wu Hequan mentioned that 5G technology is immature, which can be interpreted in many directions, but what is most closely related to people's real life is that the application scenarios of 5G are still relatively single.

In the past year, many related reports have talked about the scenarios in which 5G can be used after its popularization. At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic this year, hospitals in Wuhan also used 5G for remote consultation. Unfortunately, the scenarios in which people are exposed to 5G in their lives are still only related to mobile phones. The envisioned 5G linkage with autonomous driving and the Internet of Things has not yet arrived.

There are pitfalls in operators' 4G and 5G packages

Many operators have launched 5G packages for 4G phones. Both 5G and 4G use USIM cards, so users can upgrade to 5G packages without changing cards or numbers.

However, the problem is that although the speed of 4G mobile phones will be faster when using 5G packages, this is not the real use of 5G network. While the country has invested a lot of money, there are still many 5G users who are just experiencing 5G packages and not really using 5G networks, which is undoubtedly a waste.

The choice of 5G packages is shrinking

However, at present, the marketing strategies of telecom operators have also begun to change. At present, the types of 4G packages of the three major operators have been significantly reduced, and the prices are far less attractive than 5G packages. There are only two 4G packages below 50 yuan, and the tariffs of other 4G packages have no obvious advantages over 5G.

This promotion model further exacerbates the above problem, that is, the number of 5G users is constantly increasing, but due to cost reasons, the popularization speed of 5G mobile phones is far slower than that of 5G packages, so waste is inevitable.

Conclusion

Judging from the current status of 5G development, if 5G networks are to be truly popularized, it will take at least another year for users, operators, and 5G technology to become more mature. Give 5G more time. According to the timetable of 3G to 4G and 4G to 5G, it will take at least 5 years for 5G to be popularized.