4G is still growing, but 5G is a bit awkward. Has the promised 5G phone replacement trend come to an end?

Last week, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Economic Operation of the Communications Industry from January to July 2020" report. One set of data caught my attention: from January to July this year, the number of 4G users nationwide reached 128,759 million, a growth rate of 3.4%. 2020 is known as the first year of 5G, but 4G users are still growing rapidly, which inevitably makes 5G a bit embarrassing. Is the promised 5G replacement wave over?

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4G is still growing, 5G is a bit embarrassing

Don't underestimate this mere 3.4% increase, as it was achieved under the premise that the 4G penetration rate was as high as 80.6%. Through the simple third-grade math formula 128759-(128759÷1.034), it is not difficult to deduce that in 2020, when 5G has been officially commercialized, more than 42.34 million new users still choose 4G.

Having come this far, I am curious about the situation of 5G users in the past seven months. According to the data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, China's 5G mobile phone sales in January-July 2020 were 86.23 million. Although the absolute number of 5G additions is indeed more than double that of 4G, it is still far from the so-called 5G replacement wave.

After all, for the total number of nearly 1.6 billion users of the country's three major operators, the sales of a mere 86.23 million new 5G phones are not worth mentioning at all. Is the 5G phone replacement trend going to fizzle out? In fact, there are thousands of reasons for not changing to a 5G phone, but in summary, there are only three: no demand, no interest, and no money.

Speed ​​measurement becomes the most widely used application of 5G

If you say there is no need for this, in fact, 4G is really enough now. I am still using the Huawei Mate 20 Pro which is more than a year old. Although it is greasy after long time use, the speed is still good. The only obvious degradation is that the battery is not as durable as before, but fortunately there is fast charging, so I don't feel any shortage in daily use.

In fact, in the past, mobile phones would become stuck after two years of use, largely because the performance of flash memory was obviously degraded. However, in the past two years, high-end mobile phones have all used UFS2.1 or higher flash memory, which has improved the performance by at least 3 times compared to the previous eMCC5.1 flash memory. Even if it slows down, you won’t feel it as obviously as before.

Another person who is not interested is the Apple users who are waiting for the iPhone 12. It is no exaggeration to say that too many of my friends are waiting for the 5G version of the iPhone 12. First, it supports 5G, one step at a time. Second, the A14 processor with a 5nm process technology is really good! Only 5nm with 5G is really good!

Many people are waiting for iPhone 12

Finally, when it comes to having no money, it actually represents the voice of the general public. Since the outbreak of the epidemic this year, how many people have lost their jobs, how many people have lost their source of income, and how many people have lost the achievements they have worked hard for several years in a few months. Mobile phones? People say that the performance of mobile phones has long been saturated, and now a thousand-yuan phone can meet the needs of many people.

In fact, the so-called 5G replacement wave is not dead, because there will never be any 5G replacement wave from the beginning. It is just a trick of manufacturers. People are eager to upgrade from 3G to 4G, but not from 4G to 5G. The former is a rigid consumption in the mobile Internet era, while the latter can only be an improvement demand.

Therefore, the transition from 4G to 5G should be slow and continuous, not like the 4G era. The most fundamental demand logic has changed, so how can there be such a ridiculous saying as "mobile phone replacement wave"? After a bitter smile, the author looked at the balance of his bank card and thought, haha, I'd better go to bed early...