When the "cold current" of the epidemic meets the "warm current" of 5G, can terminal manufacturers turn crisis into opportunity?

Amid the pandemic, terminal manufacturers have started their respective debuts in 2020. Will the sales of 5G mobile phones be affected by the pandemic? This has become a question lingering in the minds of terminal manufacturers.

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Xiaomi was the first to launch 5G mobile phones in 2020, launching its new product Xiaomi Mi 10 on February 13. As the first model to hit the high-end market after subversion and reshaping, Lei Jun did not "keep it a secret". The Xiaomi Mi 10 series is packed with powerful features and has a high starting price of 3,999 yuan. Huawei followed closely and held a Mate Xs folding screen mobile phone launch conference in Barcelona, ​​Spain on February 13. Affected by the cost of components, the phone is priced at 2,499 euros in Europe, about 19,000 yuan. Realme also held a global online new product launch conference "Speed ​​of the Future" in Spain at the same time as Huawei, launching its first 5G flagship smartphone X50 Pro 5G, priced at about 3,715 yuan. On February 26, iQOO 3 officially joined this year's "5G mobile phone group". This is the second 5G mobile phone of the iQOO brand, supporting NSA and SA dual-mode 5G, priced at 3,998 yuan. Afterwards, Honor, which was involved in the war of words, spoke out frequently; Black Shark Gaming Phone announced that it would hold an online press conference on March 3 to release its first 5G phone; OnePlus was also considering how to make the online press conference more creative...

It can be seen that under the "cold wave" of the epidemic, domestic mobile phone manufacturers did not sit idly by and are still releasing new products at the established rhythm. The official launch of 5G commercial use at the end of 2019, the maturity of dual-mode 5G chips in the industrial chain, and the widespread expectations of consumers have made terminal manufacturers believe that the mobile phone market in 2020 may be able to rebound with the help of 5G and start a new growth cycle. Some experts said in an interview with reporters that the epidemic may promote the development of 5G mobile phones and bring significant benefits.

However, the reporter observed that the market response to the recent 5G products released by terminal manufacturers seems to be mixed. Some industry insiders even believe that the new 5G mobile phones that have entered the market have not been significantly reduced in price and have no outstanding highlights. Are they just released to "occupy a place"? What is the consumer market's feedback on 5G mobile phones? Has the epidemic disrupted the release rhythm of terminal manufacturers? How will experts analyze the trend of the terminal market in the future? After interviewing many professionals in the industry chain, the reporter analyzed it for readers.

5G mobile phones are criticized for having no highlights. Are they released one after another just to "occupy placeholders"?

Recently, terminal manufacturers have released 5G mobile phones one after another. In summary, their prices have not dropped significantly, and all are priced above 3,000 yuan. In this regard, Chen Fengwei, deputy general manager of China Unicom's Terminal and Channel Support Center and Unicom Huasheng, said: "Mobile phone prices are mainly affected by chip prices. At present, there is insufficient competition among companies that are capable of mass-supplying chips. The manufacturers that can meet the commercial use of chips in bulk are mainly Huawei and Qualcomm, but they only support mid-to-high-end products." Therefore, the current general "high price" of 5G mobile phones is understandable.

Regarding the public's general belief that there is a lack of differentiation between current 5G mobile phones, Chen Fengwei believes: "In fact, the main difference between 5G mobile phones is the replacement of chips. In other words, 4G chips are replaced by 5G chips. In terms of other hardware configurations, there are no revolutionary changes." However, he predicts that from the second half of this year to next year, as 5G scenarios gradually strengthen, product forms will evolve, and the differentiation and innovation of 5G products will be more obvious. Sun Qi, deputy general manager of BCI Communications Research, also believes: "From a technical point of view, 5G itself is the biggest highlight of current 5G mobile phones. Many future functions will rely on the development of 5G technology, so it is not accurate to unilaterally believe that the recently released 5G mobile phones lack highlights."

In response to the "placement theory" of industry insiders, Chen Fengwei told reporters: "The current pace of manufacturers releasing new products mainly depends on the time rhythm of chip manufacturers supplying them. Manufacturers' place-taking is not intentional, but they release new products according to the original plan. However, it must be admitted that due to the impact of the epidemic, consumers' demand for 5G terminals is not strong. In addition, the supply of suppliers will also be compressed due to the impact of the epidemic."

The epidemic may be a huge boost to the development of 5G mobile phones

According to the reporter's observation, the smartphone market will launch a round of market competition at the beginning of each year, and the arrival of this epidemic has made the future terminal market even more unpredictable. Whether it is the recently popular folding screen or the 5G mobile phone supported by 5G, it is all due to the popular trend of terminals. Offline new product launch conferences cannot be held, factory production is stagnant, supply chains are blocked, and offline channels are basically shut down... On February 24, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology released the domestic mobile phone market operation report for January this year. The report shows that the domestic market mobile phone shipments in January this year were 20.8 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 38.9% compared with last year. Considering that the impact of the epidemic only began to appear after January 20, it is not difficult to judge that the mobile phone shipments in February and March may be even less optimistic. But no matter what kind of trend or what kind of release method, it is a strategy for terminal manufacturers to "speculate" under the epidemic, try to make up for it, minimize the impact, and ensure that the overall rhythm of products and markets after the epidemic is not disrupted.

The industry believes that the launch rhythm and shipment volume of new 5G mobile phones mainly depend on users' demand for replacement phones. In the reporter's opinion, both the epidemic and the impact of the macro economy can only temporarily suppress consumers' desire. In the long run, this demand will not decrease, and the demand for replacement phones and iterative 5G mobile phones will always be there. In Chen Fengwei's view, "Once the demand for replacement of 5G mobile phones is restored, the industry chain will definitely overcome various difficulties and improve the 'quality' and 'quantity' of 5G mobile phones."

In addition, a considerable number of experts are also optimistic about the development of the 5G mobile phone market this year. "The epidemic will not delay the development of China's 5G. In the medium and long term, the demand for fighting the epidemic will boost the development of China's 5G. Before May this year, problems such as the resumption of work in the industrial chain may have a slight impact on terminal supply. Although different parties have different forecasts, I expect that shipments and overall revenue will decline by 5% at most, which will not have an irreversible impact on the overall terminal market this year." Chen Fengwei said.

At the same time, Chen Fengwei also said: "From the perspective of the market throughout the year, I think the outbreak of this epidemic is a great boon to 5G. Because the industry and consumers were not clear about the scenarios in which 5G would replace 4G, but with the many scenarios and cases of fighting the epidemic, the industry's demand for 5G has become increasingly clear. For example, the four major scenarios of medical care, life and entertainment, public safety, remote office and online education have the most urgent demand for 5G."

When the "cold current" surges in, perhaps the 5G "warm current" from the government can give anxious mobile phone manufacturers some comfort. As an infrastructure, the construction of 5G networks will not lag behind, but will accelerate. On February 22, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology required basic telecommunications companies to promptly assess the impact of the epidemic, formulate and optimize 5G network construction plans, accelerate the pace of 5G, especially independent networking construction, and effectively play the positive role of 5G construction in "stabilizing investment" and driving the development of the industrial chain. The reporter learned from China Unicom that China Unicom has strongly supported the deployment of 5G construction, the policy of strengthening the development of 5G terminals, the joint marketing of various channel partners, and the technical support for strengthening 5G scenarios, and the news conveyed is extremely positive.

According to incomplete statistics, ZTE and Xiaomi have both announced their goal of launching at least 10 5G mobile phones in 2020; vivo also stated that it will launch at least five 5G models this year; OPPO expects that nearly 20% of its products in the Chinese market in 2020 will be 5G mobile phones; in addition, Huawei also stated that it will release a 5G mobile phone priced at "thousand yuan" by the end of 2020.

If 2019 is the first year of 5G, then 2020 is the starting point for the substantial development of 5G terminals. As Sun Qi said, "It is undeniable that the epidemic has had a certain impact on the promotion and production of 5G mobile phones, but after the epidemic is over, the terminal market is expected to usher in a round of explosive growth."