Why has the number portability service suddenly become silent? Should this service be cancelled?

Why did the once-noisy "big event" die down and become silent in less than half a year?

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Recently, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference pointed out to the media that according to his investigation, the implementation of the number portability policy has caused illegal and disorderly competition among operators, harm to consumers, and corruption, and suggested that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology suspend it. In fact, if the CPPCC member had not mentioned "number portability" again in the public media, most people would have forgotten about it.

01. Why did the once-noisy "big event" die down and become silent in less than half a year?

In fact, this also proves to a certain extent that the service of number portability itself is indeed not a rigidly needed service, and the necessity itself is not that strong. This problem can be seen more clearly from the data:

The first set of data: From the launch of number portability to the end of February, nearly four months later, the three major operators have actually handled number portability for a total of about 1.85 million users, and the number of users handling it each month is on a downward trend. 1.85 million is almost negligible compared to the total number of more than 1.6 billion mobile users nationwide.

The second set of data: As of March 31, 2019, the total number of China Mobile's customers reached 931 million, of which the number of 4G users reached 723 million. In the first quarter of 2020, the number of China Mobile's 4G users increased by 10.67 million, making it the operator with the largest net increase in users among the three major operators. The large-scale loss of users that netizens had expected did not occur, which means that the impact of number portability on China Mobile can be basically ignored.

There seems to be a major deviation between reality and assumptions. After all, from government departments to media, number portability is treated as an important task and a major hot topic. The three major operators are more cautious. Some people think it is a major development opportunity, while others regard it as a formidable enemy... But the reality is "raise it high, put it down gently, quickly and silently." Why does this major deviation occur?

We can analyze it from the business logic of number portability:

First of all, let's think about it. At present, the three major operators have basically achieved homogeneous development, with roughly the same network coverage, basically the same service level, and little difference in tariffs. Under such circumstances, what kind of customer would insist on changing the service provider (operator) without changing the number?

Today, when ordinary users use communication services, there are only the following situations:

The first type is the card that you cannot do without for a long time. You can use it as the only card and just insert one card.

The second option is that if you don’t like the current operator and don’t mind changing the current number, you can just change the card and the operator.

The third type is that you don't like the current operator, but changing the current number will have a greater impact on your daily social connections. Solution: Buy a second card as the main card for making calls and surfing the Internet, and reduce the package of the current number (such as the basic package in May) and keep it for answering calls and receiving text messages. Continue to use the number used for a long time on the first card, and the second card can be replaced at any time according to the preferential activities of various operators. Or after the second card has been used for a long time, it gradually replaces the social network of the first card, then the first card can be cancelled.

From the above analysis, there is no necessary business scenario for number portability, and it can even be understood as an optional and icing on the cake service.

02. Should we cancel the number portability service as suggested by the CPPCC member above? I think it is unnecessary.

After all, in order to smoothly promote number portability, the entire industry has invested a lot of money. From the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to the three major operators, they have deployed corresponding equipment, which is a considerable investment in itself. What is more critical is that the three major operators have sorted out the business processes of the existing network, and even some Internet companies need to participate. The overall investment of human, financial and material resources is huge, and it is estimated that at least tens of billions of funds are invested. If number portability is suspended or even stopped, these expenditures will actually become water. In line with the idea of ​​not losing state-owned assets, suspending number portability is not a good idea.

The more critical point is that, as some users have said, "I can live without it, but you can't." Giving users the right to port their numbers is like hanging a sword of Damocles over the heads of operators. At least operators will not dare to treat old users so arbitrarily. They must improve service quality, which can keep healthy competition among the three major operators and promote the development of the entire industry. This is always a good thing!