Before the 5G feast, the operators' tight restrictions have been booked

At the 2019 Mobile World Congress held in Barcelona this year, 5G naturally became the most dazzling star. Operators, equipment manufacturers, terminal manufacturers and chip manufacturers all showed off their unique abilities in 5G. In addition to leading the trend of communication technology development, it also gave people the visual feast of a hundred flowers blooming. Although 5G has not yet been licensed for commercial use, the tight restrictions on operators before the arrival of 5G have been booked.

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1. 5G mobile phone charges will be cheaper than 4G

At the recent 19th Financial Think Tank Salon of the People's Political Consultative Conference, Zhang Yunyong, president of China Unicom Research Institute, said that 5G mobile phone charges will only gradually become cheaper than 4G, and will not be more expensive than 4G. Under the continuous and strong promotion of speed increase and fee reduction by the regulatory authorities, 4G charges have dropped by more than 80% compared with the initial commercial use. Unlimited traffic packages continue to refresh the ultra-low threshold of 4G charges, which has greatly promoted the rapid development of content provider Internet companies on the one hand, and accelerated the popularization of life convenience applications under the mobile Internet on the other hand. However, for operators, the expected goal of stimulating user traffic consumption by continuously reducing charges to achieve small profits and quick turnover did not appear. The original intention of such small profits and quick turnover can be clearly concluded from the operating data in 2018 that it did not appear. It can be said that on the one hand, the unit price of charges tends to decline in a straight line, and on the other hand, the growth rate of traffic has slowed down. And it is very surprising that the incremental revenue contributed by traffic business is actually lower than the revenue loss brought by voice business.

This is already the case in the 4G era. If the low-priced 5G tariffs still cannot significantly stimulate user traffic consumption and achieve small profits but quick turnover, then the revenue and profits of operators will be reduced, especially when the industrial Internet applications based on 5G are just starting. In this way, the super-large-scale investment and expenditure of operators will inevitably be affected. Operators will also be burdened with huge debts with a high probability. Being affected by the construction of 5G will eventually cause the network and technology to lag behind the international advanced countries, making my country's efforts to lead the world in 5G lose support. 5G is not yet commercially available, and the future package pricing has not been announced, but it is likely to be lower than the 4G tariff. From 2G to 3G to 4G, the tariffs of operators have been declining, accompanied by slow growth in their revenue and profits. Will the past history repeat itself? Now we can only hope that the industrial Internet applications based on 5G can make a difference in history.

2. Reduce or even cancel mobile phone roaming charges in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao

On February 28, at the press conference of the Outline Development Plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Director Luo stated that the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will actively build a "one-hour living circle" and will mainly take three specific measures. Among them, "promoting the reduction or even cancellation of long-distance and roaming charges for mobile phones in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao" is one of its measures. The reduction or even cancellation of long-distance and roaming charges for mobile phones referred to by Director Luo sets a regional restriction, that is, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao. However, with the voice and data roaming charges in the mainland having been cancelled long ago, Guangdong's mobile phone number cards have long become "Shenzhouxing" and are available domestically. That is to say, although the "Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao" are limited, this restriction does not exist in the actual implementation process. It can also be understood that the surface is Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, but the actual reference is the whole country (except Taiwan, my country for the time being).

In addition, Director Luo's "reducing or even canceling long-distance and roaming charges" will have a good result for users, as mobile phone numbers in various provinces and regions in the mainland can use the tariffs and packages of their home regions in Hong Kong and Macao. Although the economic exchanges between the mainland and Hong Kong and Macao continue to deepen, reducing long-distance and roaming charges for mobile phones will stimulate user business consumption, and reducing rates is no longer a problem, but directly canceling long-distance and roaming charges for mobile phones may bring greater revenue pressure to operators, which may involve settlement and other issues. In addition, whether this reduction or even cancellation of long-distance and roaming charges for mobile phones is one-way or two-way also needs attention. After all, the number of users going to the mainland and Hong Kong and Macao far exceeds that of the other party coming to the mainland. How to deal with the settlement involved requires detailed planning and calculation. It can be said that this idea is relatively far-sighted, but when it will take shape is worth looking forward to.

3. What to do with fixed broadband after 5G arrives

High bandwidth and low latency are the basic characteristics of 5G technology. So after 5G is commercially available, do fixed-line broadband users still need to continue to subscribe to the service? Will there be a large-scale cancellation of fixed-line broadband users in the future? From the experience of US operators that have already started 5G commercial use, 5G home broadband access has been deployed in some cities in the United States, such as Houston, Indianapolis, Los Angeles and Sacramento. From various news and research analyses published on the Internet, 5G can help solve the "last mile" problem, that is, to facilitate access to communities that are difficult to access with fixed-line broadband. However, if a large number of users flock to the home broadband provided by 5G, the carrying capacity of the 5G network will be greatly tested. The saying in the communications industry that "wired is unlimited, wireless is limited" shows from an extreme case how much high-bandwidth 5G can do. But this saying also includes that 5G can replace some fixed-line broadband functions. In this way, even if there will not be a large-scale departure of fixed-line broadband users, at least departure will be inevitable.

5G and fixed-line broadband should be mutually synergistic, but we still don’t know to what extent this synergy can reduce the replacement of wireless for wired. What needs special attention is that if wireless broadband has a huge advantage over wired broadband in terms of construction cost, then capital and technology will make great efforts to solve the problem of insufficient and stable wireless broadband. If wireless broadband can achieve the same stability as mobile phones in the future, then the number of wireless-based home broadband users will increase significantly.

Before 5G was officially licensed for commercial use, application scenarios were already a big problem compared to the maturity of technology, baseband chips, and mobile phone terminals. However, before the application scenarios were resolved, various policy and technical problems faced by operators continued to emerge. The regulatory authorities have imposed more and more restrictions on operators, which is largely to urge operators to make changes. However, the need for change should not hinder my country's global leadership in 5G.