How to view the doomed failure of 5G network from a metaphysical perspective

It's time, fate, luck, and not 5G... Some things really have to be believed! I calculated that the 5G network, which is now being sought after, can really be said to be "born at the wrong time, and it is difficult for time to be successful!"

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The editor calculated that 5G network is unlikely to become a big success

Don’t rush to criticize me. Today, let us try to deduce the development path of 5G from the perspective of “metaphysics”.

Time: Born at the wrong time, a lonely tree cannot stand

As people expect, 5G will usher in the era of the Internet of Everything. Unfortunately, 5G network was born at the wrong time and was not born in the future when artificial intelligence technology is highly developed. It should be known that the core of the Internet of Things is not only the 5G network, but the development of artificial intelligence technology plays a decisive role.

Only when artificial intelligence technology develops by leaps and bounds will the Internet of Everything have practical significance. Only when sufficiently intelligent devices are connected can our lives be truly changed. The development of artificial intelligence is inseparable from "computing" and "data". Whether it is cloud computing or edge computing, it is necessary to process and interact with big data, and this is the meaning of 5G.

The Internet of Everything is hard to achieve with 5G alone, but AI is the key

However, did you know that the concept of artificial intelligence was formally established as early as 1956, but it still remains at the stage of beautiful conception. Some scholars divide the development of artificial intelligence technology into three waves, and we are currently at the end of the third wave. For example, virtual assistants, robots, and smart speakers can all be regarded as products of the third wave.

No one knows when the fourth wave of artificial intelligence will arrive. However, as the two core elements of the development of artificial intelligence technology, "computing" and "data" must be highly developed in coordination to achieve it. 5G networks and terminal-side smart devices have accelerated the information collection and transmission of big data, so perhaps the only suspense is the emergence of new materials for computing chips.

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Silicon materials that have been around for more than 40 years are facing process bottlenecks

The industry generally believes that the processing limit of silicon materials is 10nm line width. Due to the constraints of physical principles, it is unlikely to produce products with stable performance and higher integration after 10nm, or the benefits of improving the process will not be great. Before new materials are officially widely used and computing bottlenecks are officially broken, the development of artificial intelligence technology may be constrained.

So from a big picture perspective, although 5G has opened up the Ren and Du meridians of information data, the development of the "brain" is encountering a bottleneck stage. Mobile Internet based on 4G networks has reached its peak, and the road to the era of the Internet of Everything has just begun. Perhaps the embarrassment of 5G is that it was born at this "gap" time!

The development of artificial intelligence takes time, and the next wave may skip 5G directly. The fourth wave of artificial intelligence + the future 6G network will jointly push the era of the Internet of Everything to its peak.

Fate: Good things come in pairs, but odd numbers are hard to come by

I believe many experienced DIY players know that Intel once proposed a "Tick-Tock" pendulum strategy. This pendulum strategy is actually Intel's processor development strategy model, which was first formally proposed in 2007. The so-called Tick is a major architecture update, while Tock represents the optimization of the same architecture. One pendulum completes the entire architecture life cycle.

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The “Tick-Tock” development strategy is applied in many fields

In fact, it is not only PC chips that follow the "Tick-Tock" concept. The iPhone X and iPhone Xs in the mobile phone field also have the same meaning. The same is true in the automotive field, which also follows the rules of "major upgrade" and "mid-term facelift". The major upgrade will fully update the powertrain and chassis, while the minor upgrade is generally a "plastic surgery" on the appearance and then sold.

1, 3, and 5 became the pioneering years, and 2, 4, and 6 became the take-off years.

If you apply this rule to the development of communication technology, you will find that it is also highly consistent. 1G and 3G are both "pioneering years", while 2G and 4G are "take-off years". Let's be a little "superstitious". Perhaps in the field of communication, communication technology of the odd (1G, 3G, 5G) generations will not escape the fate of "laying the foundation".

1G is the beginning of mobile communication, and 2G is the great development of mobile communication. 3G is the embryo of mobile Internet, and 4G is the pinnacle of mobile Internet applications, which has completely changed people's lives. As expected by global consensus, 5G network will usher in the era of Internet of Everything, but perhaps the historical mission of 5G is just a stepping stone to the era of Internet of Things.

Yun Ye: Competition upgrades and iterations accelerate

I don’t really understand the theories of Yin Yang, Bagua and Five Elements. The so-called “metaphysics” is actually based on the review of the laws of past technological development and the deduction of future technological development, and of course, some of my own shallow understanding. The reason why I bring up the word “metaphysics” is that countless facts have proved how ridiculous it is to predict the future.

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The so-called "metaphysics" is actually review and deduction

Perhaps 5G is just a technological transition and preparation, and it cannot achieve the glory created by the 4G era. However, the development of any technology does not come out of thin air. Without the paving of 5G, how can we achieve the glory of the future? The road must be taken step by step, and any wave of technology cannot be achieved overnight. Because the rise of any technological wave does not come out of thin air. Technological innovation is based on the advancement of demand and the accumulation of technology, and is the result of the joint efforts of all mankind.

As the world's technological competition intensifies, 5G can also be seen as a turning point. In the 1G and 2G eras, our communication technology started late and was completely controlled by others. In the 5G era, our inventions and patents have benefited more people on this planet. The seemingly simple iteration of communication technology has now become a weight in the technological competition among major countries.

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5G network has not been officially commercialized yet, but we have already started research on 6G

When 5G networks have not yet been put into commercial use, we have already started researching 6G networks. Perhaps under this international competition pattern, the iteration of communication technology will be accelerated, and the life cycle of 5G networks will be shortened. Competition is a good catalyst for promoting technological progress. Perhaps with the acceleration of competition, we may see the emergence of 6G networks earlier.

If we can become the dominant force in 6G in the future, then why should we care whether 5G can become a big success? The editor is not pessimistic about 5G. If we take a long-term view and expand the cycle, we may see a different 5G.