In 2016, the global demand for optical fiber will reach 425 million core kilometers, and China will account for 57% and determine the industry structure

December 12 morning news (Jiang Junmu) The global demand for optical fiber and cable will reach 425 million core kilometers in 2016, of which China will account for 57%, predicted John Johnson, president of CRU China.

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At the 2017 Hengtong Group Media Interaction Conference on the 11th, Johnson delivered a keynote speech entitled "The Chinese Market Determines the Global Optical Fiber and Cable Industry Landscape", sharing CRU's view on the current status and future prospects of the global optical fiber and cable market, and particularly emphasized that "China accounts for the largest share of global optical fiber demand" and "as China's demand is higher than expected, global optical fiber and cable demand will hit a new high in 2016."

The report said that the global demand for optical fiber and cable has exceeded 400 million core kilometers, and China's strong demand is still the main driving force, which will continue to lead the global growth trend. The demand in North America and the Asia-Pacific market outside China has maintained an upward trend; the demand growth in Western Europe has increased significantly, and the Eastern European market is also gradually recovering.

At the same time, China's fiber optic deployment is developing at an extraordinary speed. Johnson compared it with the United States, saying that China's cumulative fiber optic installation volume is comparable to that of the United States, but in a very short time.

With the widespread coverage of 4G and fiber-to-the-home, will China's fiber optic cable growth reach saturation? CRU believes not. From 2010 to 2015, the average annual growth rate of global Internet traffic reached 29%, which means that fiber optic cable as infrastructure will still be the focus of investment.

The huge demand is one thing, but more importantly, China's cable manufacturing industry is also rising strongly. Chinese manufacturers are expanding their production capacity at an astonishing rate, and they are also maintaining an aggressive attitude in optical fiber preforms. Johnson pointed out that several large preforms will be put on the market in 2017, but before that, the shortage of preform supply will limit the growth of demand to a certain extent.

Other highlights of the report include: active fiber-to-the-home deployment has stimulated demand for optical cables in many countries and regions; the tight supply has limited the rapid growth of demand to a certain extent; in the future, developing communications markets will attract more investment in optical fiber cables; and the demand for submarine cables will continue its strong upward trend.

“The pace of upgrading has not stopped, and the decline is still far away. Industry experts once predicted that fiber-to-the-home would be the ‘end’ of fiber optics development; today we see 5G, the Internet of Things and a series of new technologies emerging - which means that high-density needs exist not only in home networks.” Johnson concluded.