CCS Insight: 5G connections to jump to 3.2 billion by the end of 2025

The GSMA's in-house The Mobile Economy Report, published in March, estimated that by 2025, one in five mobile connections will be 5G.

A report recently released by CCS Insight believes that by then one in every four mobile connections will be 5G.

CCS Insight believes COVID-19 will cause near-term and “modest” delays in adoption, but the longer-term outlook for the next-generation technology is now better than previously expected, thanks to “accelerating momentum” in China and competitively priced mobile phones.

The forecast for 5G connections is set to exceed 1 billion by 2022, before a major jump to 3.2 billion is expected by the end of 2025. CCS Insight expects the global mobile phone market to achieve a "full recovery" by 2022, with shipments exceeding 2019 levels.

“The arrival of new chipsets and increased competition from a shrinking global mobile phone market will lead to faster introduction of 5G in more affordable smartphones in 2020,” said Marina Koytcheva, vice president of forecasting at CCS Insight. “We will see prices for supported devices fall below $400 sooner than previously expected, a trend that will help 5G become more accessible to a wider range of people.”

China will be the engine driving 5G adoption, with the research firm now predicting there will be nearly 100 million 5G connections in the country by the end of this year and more than 1 billion by 2024.

"Strong desire from local operators to make up for the delays caused by COVID-19 in the first quarter, coupled with enthusiastic government support, widespread availability of cheaper 5G phones and relentless efforts by local network equipment and handset manufacturers, will stimulate demand," said Kostmann, director of consumer and connectivity research at CCS Insight.

Four out of every 10 mobile phones purchased in China now support 5G technology, and total sales of 5G devices are expected to exceed 100 million by 2020. China aims to deploy 1 million 5G base stations by the end of this year.

The outlook for 5G isn’t all rosy. According to CCS Insight, 5G adoption in industrial IoT and smart cities will stall as governments and businesses (with China being a notable exception) “focus on short-term priorities.”

CCS Insight predicts that by 2025, there will be 270 million IoT devices connected to 5G networks worldwide.