Report: Global 5G mobile data traffic is growing explosively

Mobile network operators promise their users that 5G will provide higher capacity, faster speeds, greater energy efficiency, lower RAN latency and create massive connectivity. However, these come at the cost of skyrocketing demand for mobile data traffic.

According to data from global technology intelligence company ABI Research, global 5G mobile data traffic will reach 1,676 EB in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 63%.

Rapidly growing data traffic is forcing mobile network operators to upgrade their network capacity. With a limited number of new macro cell sites available and a limited amount of 5G spectrum, the most practical approach is to densely deploy 5G small cells, albeit at a high cost. Currently, Massive MIMO (mMIMO) macro cells already meet 5G capacity needs, but these may not be enough, making small cells even more critical. By 2027, there will be 13 million outdoor 5G small base stations deployed. 5G small cell deployments will exceed 4G in 2028.

“5G small cells complement macro cells, increasing network capacity and extending coverage in dense areas where signals are weak or unavailable,” said Fei Liu, 5G industry analyst at ABI Research, mobile network infrastructure.

“They also allow network operators to extract more value from existing spectrum by using it more efficiently.

"Compared with the previous generation of small base stations, 5G small base stations face more challenges in design and performance. 5G small base stations need to be smaller and lighter while supporting larger bandwidths such as 100MHz and 200MHz," Liu said.

“With 5G, deployment scenarios are much broader, forcing vendors to provide comprehensive solutions to support a variety of needs.”

In the consumer market, mobile network operators in most countries are focused on macro cell deployments of 5G. Actual data traffic growth rates will determine the timing and extent of network capacity challenges. Large-scale 5G small cell deployments will occur around 2025, when network capacity on the C-band will be exhausted without additional spectrum or small cell densification. Enterprises and vertical industries are already deploying 5G small cells for their private networks.

“5G small cells leverage the backhaul established for macro cells, so mobile network operators should start deploying 5G small cells in locations where backhaul has been established,” Liu said.

"5G small cells can coexist with macro cells, and self-organizing networks can help minimize the risk of inter-cell interference. Alternatively, mobile network operators should deploy different frequency bands for small and macro cells."

These findings come from ABI Research's 5G Small Cells Application Analysis report. The report is part of the company's 5G - Mobile Network Infrastructure research service, which includes research, data and analyst insights. Based on extensive primary interviews, the application analysis report provides in-depth analysis of key market trends and factors for specific technologies.