Gartner predicts: Global 5G network infrastructure revenue will grow 39% in 2021

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Beijing time, August 9th, according to the latest forecast from market research firm Gartner, global 5G network infrastructure revenue is expected to grow 39% in 2021 to US$19.1 billion, higher than the revenue of US$13.7 billion in 2020.

Communications service providers (CSPs) in mature markets have accelerated the development of 5G in 2020 and 2021, and 5G will account for 39% of total wireless infrastructure revenue this year. "The COVID-19 pandemic has driven demand for optimized and ultra-high-speed broadband connectivity services to support working from home and bandwidth-intensive applications such as streaming video, online gaming and social media applications," said Michael Porowski, senior principal research analyst at Gartner.

5G is the fastest growing segment of the wireless network infrastructure market. The only significant opportunity for investment growth in the wireless infrastructure market segments forecast by Gartner is in 5G. Investment in traditional wireless technologies is declining rapidly in all regions of the world, and as CSPs shift to 5G small cells, spending on non-5G small cells will decline.

From a regional perspective, CSP 5G revenue in North America is expected to increase from $2.9 billion in 2020 to $4.3 billion in 2021, partly due to the increased adoption of dynamic spectrum sharing technology and millimeter wave base stations. In Western Europe, CSPs will prioritize licensed spectrum, modernizing mobile core network infrastructure, and regulatory processes, and 5G revenue in the region is expected to increase from $794 million in 2020 to $1.6 billion in 2021. Greater China is expected to maintain its position as the world's number one in global 5G revenue, with 5G revenue in the region reaching $9.1 billion in 2021, up from $7.4 billion in 2020.

Figure: Global wireless network infrastructure revenue forecast (in millions of U.S. dollars). Source: Gartner (August 2021).

5G coverage in first-tier cities will reach 60% in 2024

While 10% of CSPs will offer commercial 5G services in 2020, likely achieving initial multi-regional network availability, Gartner predicts that this figure will reach 60% by 2024, comparable to past adoption rates for LTE and 4G.

“Enterprise and consumer demand is an influencing factor in this growth,” said Michael Porowski. “As consumers return to the office, they will continue to upgrade or switch to Gigabit fiber-to-the-home services as network connectivity becomes a must-have for remote work services. Users will also increasingly examine the services provided by CSPs for both office and remote work needs.”

This rapid shift in customer behavior is driving the global market to increasingly use PON as the technology of choice. 10GB Symmetric PON (XGS-PON) is not a new technology, but as the price difference with other technologies narrows, CSPs are willing to invest in XGS-PON to differentiate themselves in customer experience and network quality. Gartner predicts that by 2025, 60% of Tier 1 CSPs will adopt XGS-PON technology on a large scale to provide ultra-high-speed broadband services to residential and enterprise users, compared to less than 30% in 2020.