5G is expected to be the fastest deployed mobile communications technology in history

Telecommunications company Ericsson has released its latest mobility report, with its long-term forecast set for 2026, when 5G will finally replace aging 4G infrastructure and equipment as the global wireless standard.

Ericsson said 5G expansion is rapid, noting that 5G subscriptions with capable devices grew by more than 70 million to 290 million in the first quarter of 2021. Ericsson predicts that by the end of 2021, there will be 580 million 5G subscriptions, and by 2026, North America will lead in 5G mobile subscriptions, with 84% of mobile subscriptions having 5G coverage.

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Ericsson says this will allow 5G to reach 1 billion users two years faster than 4G. Again citing the 2026 figure, 5G is expected to reach 3.5 billion users worldwide, accounting for 40% of all mobile subscriptions.

Ericsson says that by 2026, 5G will be ubiquitous around the world, with all 10 regions it defines having at least some level of access. Ericsson expects 7% of subscribers in Sub-Saharan Africa to be on 5G networks by 2026, while North America will reach the aforementioned 84% penetration rate. In contrast, Northeast Asia will have the highest 5G penetration rate by 2020, with 9% of its mobile plans being 5G. By 2026, the region will have 65% 5G penetration, ranking fourth behind North America, the GCC, and Western Europe.

Smartphones and their users aren’t the only beneficiaries of the rapid rollout of 5G. Ericsson mentioned that fixed wireless access and broadband IoT are also expanding rapidly with the development of 5G.

Fixed wireless access refers to any service that uses 4G or 5G as a way to connect fixed locations to the internet. Largely seen as a way to eliminate the last mile challenge in rural areas, more than 70% of service providers now offer FWA, and 90% of them have launched 5G services. Ericsson expects that by the end of 2026, more than 20% of mobile network data traffic worldwide will come from FWA.

Ericsson said FWA adoption is driven primarily by three factors: demand for broadband connections, cost-effectiveness compared to wired broadband services, and subsidies from governments that see broadband access as a vital component of digital transformation and economic growth initiatives.

Perhaps most interestingly for business leaders, broadband IoT (defined in the report as using 4G or 5G) will replace 2G/3G IoT with narrowband (NB-IoT) and Cat-M (4G chips designed specifically for IoT hardware) products, which are expected to grow 80% by 2021.

Ericsson said broadband connectivity for IoT devices opens up a whole new avenue of use cases, citing cloud-based augmented reality/virtual reality, remote control of machines and vehicles, cloud robotics, better cloud gaming, and real-time coordination and control of machines and processes as potential use cases. Ericsson said all of these services are time-critical and will be enabled by further expansion of 5G standalone IoT devices that do not require a 4G backbone to operate.