Are the operating data of the three major operators good with number portability and 5G commercial use?

On October 31, the three major domestic operators jointly launched 5G packages for commercial use. From November 10 to 26, the number portability service was trialed in 26 provinces. On November 27, the number portability service was officially launched. With the number portability service and the first month of 5G commercial use, are the operating data of the three major operators still good?

Recently, the three major operators successively announced their operating data for November 2019. China Mobile continued to lead as expected, with a net increase of 2.955 million mobile users, reaching a total of 946.545 million; a net increase of 3.967 million 4G users, reaching 753.029 million; and a net increase of 694,000 wired broadband users, reaching 187.65 million.

China Telecom continued to maintain stability, with a net increase of 1.86 million mobile users, reaching a total of 334.39 million; a net increase of 1.93 million 4G users, reaching 280 million; and a net increase of 500,000 wired broadband users, reaching 153.75 million.

China Unicom is a bit "difficult to describe". After a net decrease of 2.61 million mobile users in October, it decreased by 856,000 again this month, reaching a total of 321.263 million; 4G users increased by 1.827 million, reaching 254 million; fixed-line broadband users decreased by 100,000, reaching 84.453 million. The embarrassing "two consecutive declines" in mobile users are made worse by the reduction in fixed-line broadband users. The only consolation is that the decline in mobile users in November has been greatly narrowed compared to October.

Who is the biggest winner in the first month of number portability?

At the end of November, data revealed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed that as of November 26, the number of users who switched out of China Telecom, China Mobile and China Unicom accounted for 16.3%, 57.6% and 26.1% of the total number of users who switched out, respectively, and the number of users who switched in accounted for 49.3%, 28.1% and 22.6%, respectively. China Telecom has become the biggest beneficiary of number portability.

China Mobile expressed a different opinion on this data: the data is the percentage obtained by dividing the number of outbound users of each operator by the total number of outbound users of the three operators. Because China Mobile has a relatively larger number of users, it accounts for more than 60% of the market share nationwide. Even if it is based on the proportion of 57.6%, it has not reached China Mobile's market share. China Mobile's outbound proportion is not high.

Another set of statistical data shows that during the trial operation of number portability in 26 provinces from November 10 to 26, China Mobile had 36,413 incoming users and 6,248 net incoming users, the highest among the three operators; the number portability rate was 0.003%, the lowest among the three operators.

Data shows that in the early stage of the pilot program of number portability in five provinces (since 2010), the total number of number portability users in the industry accounted for only 1.8% of the total users; in the recent trial operation in 26 provinces (November 10 to 26), the total number of number portability users in the industry was only 72,000; during this period, the number portability procedures of operators have become more and more standardized, and users have become more and more rational in their view of number portability.

The total number of users who have ported their numbers across the industry is less than 100,000, which is not enough to affect the operating data. However, no matter how the data is analyzed or what the standard is, China Unicom is the biggest "loss sufferer" in the early stage of number portability. From the perspective of industry research, the reason why users port their numbers out is that they are more concerned about network quality and service level when the rates are similar. In this context, should China Unicom reflect on its negligence in network construction and return to the essence of service?

At the beginning of 5G commercialization, users are still the focus of competition

On October 31, the three major operators simultaneously launched 5G commercial packages, thus kicking off the battle for 5G users. Wu Hequan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, recently said that the number of 5G users is expected to exceed 10 million by the end of the year. In the operating data for November, the three major operators did not disclose their own 5G user numbers, but based on the previously disclosed 5G investment scale and number of sites, the distribution profile can be basically guessed.

China Mobile, which is "rich and powerful", has invested 24 billion yuan in 5G this year, while China Telecom and China Unicom have invested 9 billion yuan and 8 billion yuan respectively. China Mobile recently stated that its goal of building more than 50,000 5G base stations and providing 5G commercial services to more than 50 cities by the end of the year has been basically achieved.

After China Telecom's mobile user number officially surpassed China Unicom in July this year, it has firmly held the "second place" throne, and has performed well in data on mobile phone transfers in different dimensions. Public data shows that China Telecom's goal this year is to build 40,000 5G base stations, covering more than 50 cities.

China Unicom's goal this year is also to build 50,000 5G base stations. In September, it signed the "5G Network Co-construction and Sharing Framework Cooperation Agreement" with China Telecom, which clearly stated that the 5G network co-construction and sharing will adopt the access network sharing method, the core network will be built separately, and 5G frequency resources will be shared.

At a stage where the 5G-enabled industry has not yet achieved scale benefits, mobile users are still the focus of competition among the three major operators. It is conceivable that this month and in the coming 2020, as 5G terminal prices plummet, the three major operators will once again set off a fierce battle in the user market.

Home broadband market position is becoming increasingly prominent

Judging from the operating data in November, the three major operators have not achieved very good results in the growth of home broadband users: China Mobile's net increase was 694,000. Although it still ranks first, the increase was much narrower than the 2 million to 4 million in the previous few months; China Telecom's net increase was 500,000, and the word "stable" is still the top priority; China Unicom's net decrease was 100,000, and its share of the home broadband market continued to decline, which is somewhat regrettable.

It has to be said that number portability has indeed taken up most of the operators' energy, and the interim results of 5G construction have reached the critical period of acceptance at the end of the year. Operators seem to have little time to pay attention to the home broadband market.

On the other hand, after years of "grabbing" the fixed-line broadband market, the three major operators no longer provide users with a "free lunch" and started to charge a 100 yuan broadband initial installation fee in early October. The impact of this adjustment has been reflected in the operating data in October, and the impact continued to expand in November.

In order to offset the negative impact of broadband installation fees and improve the user experience of home broadband, the three major operators are actively promoting gigabit broadband and smart networking services. With the introduction of the concept of smart home, the status of the home broadband market has risen instead of falling. The three major operators are also facing the problem of how to consolidate their market position and gain value from it.

China Mobile defines H (home market), C (mobile market), B (government and enterprise market), and N (emerging market) as the "four wheels" of all-round efforts, and is committed to enabling hundreds of millions of families to "enjoy a new life of smart living"; China Telecom, relying on a solid network foundation, has achieved gigabit optical broadband access to households in many provinces and cities, and helped Shanghai launch the "dual gigabit broadband city" brand; China Unicom is relatively weak, but is also "running at full speed" to launch gigabit smart broadband services, striving to present extremely fast networks, excellent products and ultimate services.

The operator market was somewhat negative and dull this year due to the increase in speed and reduction in fees, market saturation, and the gradual decline of 4G traffic dividends. However, at the end of the year, number portability has stirred up this calm. 5G has brought new breakthroughs and ecological cooperation opportunities. Smart homes and industrial Internet are all within the plan. The future is promising, and operators still have a lot to do.