4G networks are getting slower and slower? This may be true, but there is absolutely no conspiracy!

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This article is reprinted from the WeChat public account "悲了伤的白犀牛", written by 悲了伤的白犀牛. To reprint this article, please contact 悲了伤的白犀牛 public account.

As long as the 4G speed of users is limited, in order to ensure that the quality of mobile Internet life is not affected, users can only upgrade to the more expensive 5G.

Since the commercialization of 5G networks, the speed of 4G networks has begun to slow down, which has also aroused doubts from some conspiracy theorists. They believe that the operators deliberately limit the speed of 4G networks, thereby "forcing" users to upgrade to 5G packages and pay higher package fees to make more profits.

Judging from all the surface evidence, this questioning view seems to be valid. For example, the threshold of 5G packages is obviously higher than that of 4G packages, and the ARPU of 5G users is also obviously higher than that of 4G users. The money received by operators from individual 5G users is also higher than that of 4G users. Therefore, operators are motivated to push users to upgrade to 5G packages.

So how can we get more users to upgrade from 4G to 5G? There are only two methods, one is "pull" and the other is "push".

Let's talk about "pulling" first. Operators can attract users to voluntarily switch to 5G through high-quality 5G network experience, rich 5G network applications, and indispensable 5G network services. Unfortunately, to this day, 5G still cannot provide applications and services that are attractive to users, so the plan to lure users through "pulling" has failed.

Let's talk about "push". Since the "pull" plan failed, operators can only think of other ways. Users will always use mobile networks, because today's users are accustomed to the mobile Internet life based on 4G networks, and an important threshold to fully enjoy this kind of life is a high-quality mobile network. Therefore, perhaps operators have grasped this "lifeline" of users - as long as they limit the speed of users' 4G, in order to ensure that the quality of mobile Internet life is not affected, users can only upgrade to the more expensive 5G.

The above is an analysis based on market logic. Most people who believe that "operators limit 4G speeds" also make this conclusion based on this analytical logic.

However, it has to be said that this time, the operators are very likely to be wronged. 5G began to be commercialized and 4G began to slow down. This is probably just a coincidence in time rather than an artificial setting.

Why do you say that?

First of all, based on various facts, we must admit that the speed of the current 4G network has indeed slowed down compared with previous years. From my personal experience, in quite a few scenarios such as large residential areas, shopping malls, supermarkets, subways and high-speed railways, the 4G usage experience is not as good as before.

What is the reason for the decrease in 4G speed?

Let's first compare a set of data: In 2017, the number of 4G users in China was 700 million, and DOU (average mobile Internet access traffic per household) was about 2.2GB. Today, the number of 4G users in China has reached 1.3 billion, and DOU has surged to nearly 10GB. This means that the total traffic in the country has increased by 8.5 times!

But after the large-scale construction and development phase of 4G in 2015, 2016 and 2017, especially by 2019, domestic 4G has basically been built and large-scale construction work has stopped.

We can understand it this way: at the beginning, there were few users and the 4G network was built very quickly. Later, the number of users gradually increased, but the speed of 4G network construction began to slow down. Finally, in the second half of 2019, the scale of 4G users had become very large, and the traffic usage was huge, but the pace of 4G network expansion slowed down. After all, operators’ money is not unlimited, and they have to save some money to build 5G.

This situation is like this: when a new high-speed rail line first starts operating, there are not many people riding on it, with only 2 or 3 people in a carriage, which is very spacious and comfortable. Later, more and more people come on board, but the carriages are still the same number and size, so the comfort is definitely not as good as before.

In addition, the current 5G coverage scale (200,000 base stations) and number of users (50 million package users) are a piece of cake for operators with more than 4 million 5G base stations and 1.3 billion 4G users. With the current service capabilities of 5G networks, even if operators really have a way to migrate users over, they have no way to serve users well. Therefore, for operators, the current 4G network is still the most important main network for making money, and it is impossible to artificially limit the speed of 4G.

The conclusion is that the operators are not the kind of black-hearted businessmen who are only interested in profit. There is no need to assume the worst of them. Overall, the three major operators provide domestic users with mobile communication services that far exceed the world average. These are the few services that exceed the global average that the developing Chinese people can enjoy. Cherish them.