In the face of the epidemic, 5G helps: the four major operators collectively press the "fast forward button"

Recently, the top leadership held a meeting to speed up the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G networks and data centers. In fact, in the past month, the top leadership has repeatedly made clear requirements for accelerating 5G construction, and the regulatory authorities have also held meetings to arrange and supervise. As an important measure to stimulate macroeconomic development and promote social informatization, the social status and role of 5G are increasingly receiving official attention and reliance.

Actively responding to national requirements and calls, the four major 5G operators represented by China Mobile have accelerated the implementation of the highest instructions and concentrated their efforts on accelerating the development of 5G. However, in the early stages of 5G development, especially before the maturity of the 5G SA standard, the main scenarios of 5G applications will be limited to eMBB (enhanced mobile broadband, equivalent to 4G+). Therefore, before the end of 2020, the development of 5G users will be mainly based on individual users.

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1. China Mobile puts pressure on itself and starts accelerating the development of 5G

As a leader in the communications industry, China Mobile's every move in 5G development has attracted much attention. At the "Partner Conference" held in November 2019, China Mobile announced its 5G development plan for 2020, which is to develop 70 million 5G users, sell 300 million 5G services, 100 million 5G mobile phones, 50 million household pan-intelligent terminals and 15 million industry modules. China Mobile customers can quickly become 5G users by using 5G terminals with the "three no strategies", that is, they do not need to change cards, numbers or registrations, and can directly log in to the 5G network and become real 5G users.

Subsequently, at a media communication meeting held on January 10, 2020, China Mobile announced that as of January 7, the number of 5G package users was 3.02 million, 3.8 million 5G mobile phones were activated on the network, and the cumulative number of users experiencing 5G special services exceeded 100 million. In addition to announcing the progress of 5G development, China Mobile's senior leaders further stated that in 2020, they will actively play the role of a leading force in network power, digital China, and smart society, fully implement the "5G+" plan, and strive to achieve SA commercial use in the fourth quarter. The 2020 5G user development target has also been "increased" from 70 million announced at the 2019 Global Partner Conference to 100 million.

In February of this year, China Mobile released its operating data for January 2020, showing that as of the end of January, the number of its 5G package customers was 6.736 million. China Mobile also specifically pointed out that 5G package customers are individual mobile phone customers who have subscribed to 5G tariff packages, and do not include customers who have not subscribed to 5G packages and only share 5G package resources. It has doubled in a short period of time, from 3.02 million households on January 7 to 6.736 million households at the end of January. We have reason to speculate that China Mobile has entered the fast lane of 5G package user development.

In terms of 5G network construction, China Mobile has maintained its usual firm attitude from the very beginning, even when its peers were still hesitating. Recently, senior executives of China Mobile stated that the goal of "building 300,000 5G base stations" in 2020 will not change, and 5G networks will be built in cities above the prefecture level across the country this year. In addition to prefecture-level cities across the country, China Mobile will also deploy 5G in coastal areas and strive to cover county towns with 5G networks in 2020. The latest data shows that as of the end of February this year, the number of China Mobile's 5G base stations has exceeded 80,000, ranking first among its peers at home and abroad.

2. Targeting China Mobile, China Telecom 5G is in hot pursuit

In terms of 5G network construction, China Telecom has already signed an agreement with China Unicom to build and share together, trying to build 5G "faster, better and cheaper" through cooperation between the two. To this end, the two parties have also established a "5G co-construction and sharing working group" with a staff of 40 people, with 20 people from each side. In order to prevent the "one-acre-three-point-land" mentality of each staff, the co-construction institutions have also set up a six-month rotation system, trying to use institutional methods to solve the problem of mutual distrust or lack of trust.

The latest public information shows that China Telecom and China Unicom plan to complete the joint construction of 100,000 base stations in 47 cities in the first half of 2020, and strive to complete the established goal of 250,000 base stations nationwide in the third quarter of this year, completing the annual construction goal one quarter ahead of schedule. China Telecom and China Unicom's goal of 250,000 base stations is only 50,000 less than China Mobile's announced goal of 300,000 base stations by the end of 2020.

In addition to keeping a close eye on China Mobile in terms of 5G network construction, China Telecom also released more challenging or comparative 5G user data. On January 15, just one week after China Mobile announced the number of 5G package users as of January 7 on January 10, China Telecom stated at the 2020 Terminal Ecosystem Cooperation Promotion Conference that after two months of development, its 5G users have exceeded 8 million. Later, after media reporters contacted relevant people from China Telecom to confirm that the 8 million users it announced were also 5G package users.

Regarding the 5G terminal development goals for 2020, China Telecom stated that it plans to achieve 60 million 5G terminals, 3 million VR terminals, 36 million smart home terminals, and 20 million NB modules in 2020. Compared with China Mobile's clear announcement of 5G user development goals, we have not yet found China Telecom's 5G user development goals.

3. Although the confidence is relatively weak, China Unicom is still working hard

On February 21, China Unicom held a video conference to promote investment and construction work during the national epidemic, and disclosed its 2020 5G construction plan to the outside world, namely, it will strive to complete the construction of 100,000 base stations in 47 cities and prefectures with China Telecom in the first half of 2020, and strive to complete the construction of 250,000 base stations across the country in the third quarter, completing the annual construction target one quarter ahead of schedule.

In addition to announcing the 5G construction plan for 2020, China Unicom also announced that as of February 20, the cumulative number of 5G base stations put into operation was 64,000, and the network covered all municipalities, major provincial capitals, and key cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Greater Bay Area and other regions.

Compared with other companies that directly announced the scale of 5G package users, China Unicom is relatively low-key. We have not yet found China Unicom's 5G user scale and corresponding development plan through public channels. Although we cannot understand the specific situation of China Unicom, some media have speculated that China Unicom's 5G user number will not be too large based on the domestic shipment of more than 10 million 5G mobile phones, and gave the judgment that "China Unicom should be at the bottom of the three major operators."

On February 26, media reported that China Unicom offered a 30% discount on all 5G packages in an attempt to quickly attract 5G users. If this is true, it may indicate that China Unicom has launched a price war again and hopes to win the support of users with its price advantage.

Most of my friends in the communications industry are familiar with China Unicom's basic situation. Although it faces many difficulties in 5G construction and development, China Unicom, like China Mobile and China Telecom, is a state-owned backbone enterprise. There will definitely be ways to overcome the difficulties in 5G development. We sincerely hope that the regulators can help provide more feasible solutions to help China Unicom accelerate its development.

4. Accelerate internal integration, China Radio and Television is eager to try

Although China Mobile and other traditional operators were awarded 5G commercial licenses at the same time, China Radio and Television did not start 5G construction and development at the same time due to restrictions on basic networks, operation and maintenance experience, technical talents, organizational structure, construction and maintenance funds, etc. The reason why the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology did not issue a license to China Radio and Television at the same time when issuing 5G system test frequency band use licenses to operators at the end of 2018 is probably the same.

In early January this year, after China Radio and Television applied, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued it a 4.9GHz frequency band 5G trial frequency use license, agreeing to its deployment of 5G networks in 16 cities including Beijing. In early February, it was reported that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued radio frequency use licenses to China Telecom, China Unicom, and China Radio and Television, agreeing that the three companies would jointly use the 3300-3400MHz frequency band for 5G indoor coverage nationwide.

At the end of February, China Radio and Television received another policy dividend. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on Adjusting the Internet Backbone Network Inter-network Settlement Policy", which lowered the backbone network settlement fees of network operators including China Radio and Television. With the explosive growth of traffic today, this reduction in backbone network settlement fees will be conducive to the development and growth of China Radio and Television, especially to its future 5G development.

In addition to actively seeking various administrative licenses and policy bonuses related to 5G construction and development, China Radio and Television has also accelerated its internal "one network integration". In early March, the State Administration of Radio and Television held a "teleconference on the implementation of the National Cable TV Network Integration and Development Implementation Plan" to accelerate the integration of the national cable TV network.

Public news reports show that China Radio and Television's "One Network Nationwide" integration will be led by China Radio and Television Network Co., Ltd., and jointly established with provincial network companies and strategic investors to form a "One Network Nationwide" joint-stock company managed according to the modern enterprise system. It will also take the lead in building a 5G network with radio and television characteristics and integrate into the overall national 5G network construction.

As one of the focuses of national strategy and international competition, 5G has been given more and more historical missions. As a backbone state-owned enterprise, operators are firm executors of the implementation of national strategies and policies. Although there are still many objective difficulties related to 5G, operators represented by China Mobile have pressed the "fast forward button" for the development of 5G construction.