The darker operation of the United States has just begun. How can Huawei break the impasse when it is innocent but guilty of possessing a treasure?

[Original article from 51CTO.com] In just one week, Huawei has been pushed by the United States to become the focus of global attention.

On the 15th, the U.S. Department of Commerce included Huawei in the "Entity List", banning the export of components including chips;

On the 20th, Google of the United States announced that its Android system and Google services would stop providing technical support and collaboration for Huawei;

On the 21st, the United States decided to delay the implementation of the ban on Huawei by 90 days, and it will not take effect until mid-August;

In the eyes of the reporter, the United States is already very familiar with this familiar operation. In 2018, China's ZTE was "banned", and in 2013, the French business giant Alstom was "dismembered". Even earlier, it can be traced back to 2011 when China's photovoltaic products with extremely good sales were sued for anti-dumping. The United States basically uses the same routine - all kinds of fictitious evidence of "you have original sin", and then "strangle" openly, and then appease and give a buffer period in between, and ultimately point to the same result: ruthlessly strangling the threat.

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In this case, let's put aside those high-sounding rhetoric and get to the heart of the matter: What exactly is Huawei doing that threatens the United States? The reporter believes there are three main reasons:

First, Huawei's 5G development momentum is too strong. Now 5G has become the next outlet, and Huawei's 5G is far behind the United States in terms of the number of patents, standard technology, equipment cost, and market share. This development momentum makes the United States vigilant. 5G began to be commercialized on a small scale in 2019. South Korea, Japan, the United States, and China are currently the four countries with the fastest 5G development in the world. The United States is suppressing Huawei at this time, hoping to leave a 1-2 year window for American companies. When the global 5G industry is commercialized on a large scale, it can achieve the goal of suppressing the Chinese industry and supporting European and American forces.

Secondly, Huawei has broken the US monopoly in many high-tech fields. For a long time, the United States has been at the top of the world's scientific field. Through technological monopoly, the United States can easily make a lot of money. Now, Huawei is singing all the way in the ICT field, Kirin chips and Hongmeng operating system have been "regularized", and huge research and development funds, manpower and material resources have been invested in artificial intelligence... In order to continue to maintain its monopoly, the United States will inevitably do everything possible to attack Huawei.

*** is to increase bargaining chips for Sino-US trade.

Then the next question is, will the old tricks of the United States "destroy" Huawei? The reporter is optimistic that Huawei will not be defeated, but will likely become stronger through this opportunity. This answer is not based on patriotism, nor is it based on the good feelings towards Huawei, but is drawn after a rational analysis.

From the perspective of the areas where the United States restricts Huawei, Huawei's mobile phone business accounts for about 43% of Huawei's total revenue. Compared with Huawei's communications and ICT businesses, mobile phones can only be regarded as a sideline. With the advent of the AI ​​era in the future, Huawei's main business will have greater room for improvement, and the proportion of mobile phones will be relatively reduced. Moreover, from the perspective of Huawei's mobile phone procurement system, American suppliers only account for 30% of the share, which is not in an irreplaceable position (Israeli companies are actively contacting China). The US move is more of "killing one thousand enemies and injuring eight hundred of its own", and now there is a 90-day buffer period. It is heard that American chip companies are stepping up supply, so there will not be a big impact in the short term.

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The red area in the above figure indicates the US suppliers of Huawei mobile phones

In contrast, the "supply cut" of the Android system will indeed affect Huawei's overseas mobile phone market. However, as mentioned above, mobile phones are a sideline business, and it is unrealistic to hit Huawei hard through mobile phones. Therefore, the reporter believes that Huawei has more significance as a bargaining chip at the China-US negotiation table. After all, the actual implementation of those US operations is extremely low (the US does not really want to force Huawei into a desperate situation and then cultivate a competitor in the field of operating systems and chips).

According to the current development trend, Huawei should experience a downturn for several months. The competitive stalemate between the two sides will soon become clearer with the commercialization of 5G. At that time, the United States is likely to introduce some more targeted countermeasures. The reporter believes that the current stage is more tentative, so we should not take it lightly and make adequate preparations for more difficult situations in the future. The reporter believes that the magnanimity and vision shown by Huawei's leaders headed by Ren Zhengfei will surely win a large number of fans in the international market this time. Huawei's brand favorability will increase, and it may not be impossible to gain something in return.

***The reporter gave Huawei a passage from the Nine Yin Manual in Jin Yong's novel: Let him be strong as he is, a gentle breeze blowing over the hills. Let him be arrogant as he is, a bright moon shining over the river. No matter how strong and fierce the enemy is, just treat him as a gentle breeze blowing over the hills, a bright moon shining over the river. Although they can affect us, they cannot cause any harm.

Editor's note: In recent days, various opinions have emerged on the Internet about Huawei, some of which are pessimistic about Huawei, and some of which are advocating that Huawei is strong and not afraid of any pressure. The editor believes that these opinions are not objective enough. For a company, the most important thing is survival. With a developed country like the United States as the target of attack, Huawei is under undoubted pressure. Even if it has made extreme survival preparations many years ago, it is still difficult under such circumstances. But we can also see that the shadow ahead just means that there is sunshine behind. Anything that can't kill you will make you stronger (chicken soup must be here). At present, new technologies and applications such as cloud computing, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and 5G are emerging in an endless stream, and opportunities are endless. Huawei still has many trump cards in its hands. Don't worry, take steady steps, and step by step, you will surely create a world.

[51CTO original article, please indicate the original author and source as 51CTO.com when reprinting on partner sites]