With spectrum deployment and commercialization accelerating, how far is it from 5G clearance?

On June 15, 2017, the global 5G entered a critical stage of standards and R&D, and 5G spectrum planning has also made great progress: With the recent publication of documents by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to publicly solicit opinions on 5G mid- and high-frequency band planning, and the industry's call for strengthened coordination and striving to form more globally unified 5G operating frequency bands, the implementation of 5G spectrum planning is just around the corner. At the same time, with the deepening of the 5G commercialization process, the impact of related inputs and outputs on the entire ICT industry and the realization of a true 5G change in society have also become important issues for the industry to think about.

5G spectrum planning is just around the corner, and the industry calls for more unified frequency bands

Currently, 5G is at a critical stage of technical standard formation. Major countries and operators around the world have launched 5G trials one after another, and have issued strategic plans to develop industrial layouts to seize strategic commanding heights. my country is also actively promoting 5G technology research and industrialization, and 5G technology R&D trials and international standardization support have made new progress.

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The 5G White Paper released by the *** pointed out that in order to fully release the development potential of 5G, and rely on the leading advantages of 5G to accelerate the digital transformation of my country's economy and society, and then enhance my country's comprehensive strength in the 5G field, it is recommended to firmly grasp the 5G development window and accelerate the 5G industrialization process. Especially after the recent clear plan to deploy 5G in the two frequency bands of 3300-3600MHz and 4800-5000MHz, and accelerate the research and formulation of the medium- and long-term plan for 5G frequency, it is recommended to rely on the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) to actively communicate and coordinate, and strive to form more 5G unified frequency bands. And increase support for 5G R&D and innovation, and accelerate breakthroughs in key links such as 5G core chips, high-frequency devices and virtualization platforms. Support the development of 5G and its enhanced technologies and the cultivation of industrial ecology. Accelerate the promotion of 5G field trials to promote performance verification and product maturity. Research and propose a license plan that meets the development needs of 5G.

It is reported that in 2017, the global 5G entered a critical stage of standards and R&D, and my country's basic R&D tests progressed smoothly. So far, my country has fully carried out 5G technology R&D, and has made important breakthroughs in 5G core technologies such as large-scale antennas and ultra-dense networking. At the same time, 5G technology trials are also being carried out in depth. The first phase of testing has been successfully completed, and the second phase of testing is being carried out in an orderly manner, with a focus on 5G typical scenario trials. At the same time, China has also carried out extensive and in-depth cooperation with Europe, the United States, Japan, and South Korea at the government and industry levels. Ericsson, Nokia, Qualcomm, Intel, Samsung and other companies are deeply involved in domestic 5G R&D.

As the pioneer of 5G technology research and development, spectrum resources are also the core content of 5G research. According to Wang Xiaoyun, vice chairman of the IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group, on June 5, 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a draft for soliciting opinions on the application of 5G between 3300-3600 MHz and 4800-5000 MHz, which made a big step forward in 5G technology research. On June 8, it further solicited opinions on how to use 5G in the high-frequency millimeter wave band, which played a very important role in promoting the development of 5G in my country.

As the 5G international standardization and commercialization process accelerates, it is particularly urgent to strengthen 5G frequency research and coordination. In this regard, Xi Guohua, chairman of the Strategic Advisory Committee of the China Communications Standards Association, pointed out that there are two important things in the development of 5G: "First, we hope to reach a consensus and have a unified 5G standard, which will be beneficial for ordinary people to roam around the world; second, it is not enough to unify the standard, and more unified frequency bands are needed."

From the perspective of global layout, different countries support different frequency bands for 5G deployment, including both bands below 6GHz and bands above 6GHz. The 5G new air interface must span different frequency bands, including high, medium and low frequency bands, and support both licensed and unlicensed spectrum. From the perspective of research and design, my country is currently in an exciting stage with advanced 5G prototype systems that fully comply with global new air interface standards. Based on this, as an important promoter of 5G international standards, Qualcomm of the United States is also conducting 5G new air interface tests with many infrastructure manufacturers, hoping to launch better products in 2019 and 2020, and hopes that the 5G prototype system can provide a feasible solution before 5G is commercialized on a large scale.

According to John Smee, Vice President of Engineering Technology at Qualcomm, in the new spectrum sharing model, different regions will have different frequency bands, so it is necessary to consider what kind of technology can be used to achieve spectrum sharing so that multiple operators can coexist efficiently in the same spectrum. To this end, "we have taken a different approach, from an uncoordinated system to a shared spectrum system to coordinate and call across frequency bands. It takes a long time to obtain more 5G spectrum allocations to support new services, so the ability to operate efficiently on both licensed and unlicensed spectrum is an important factor that 3GPP considers in the design of new air interfaces. This new spectrum sharing model discussed in the research project stage will also be considered and reflected in the R15 version. Therefore, this opportunity for multiple spectrum types will also be reflected in the 5G era," said John Smee.

The accelerated commercialization of 5G will trigger a new round of investment

5G is getting closer and closer. The industry believes that as an emerging general-purpose technology, the commercialization of 5G technology will trigger a new round of investment, promote the diffusion and penetration of 5G technology into various fields of the economy and society, breed emerging information products and services, reshape the development model of traditional industries, and become a key driving force for economic and social development.

The 5G White Paper analyzes and points out that from the perspective of output structure, the driving force for output growth will shift with the deepening of the 5G commercialization process. In the early stage of 5G commercialization, operators will carry out large-scale network construction. The income of equipment manufacturers brought by 5G network equipment investment will become the main source of 5G direct economic output. It is estimated that in 2020, the total income of network equipment and terminal equipment will be about 450 billion yuan, accounting for 94% of the total direct economic output. In the mid-term of 5G commercialization, terminal equipment expenditures and telecommunications service expenditures from users and other industries will continue to grow. It is estimated that by 2025, the above two expenditures will be 1.4 trillion and 0.7 trillion yuan respectively, accounting for 64% of the total direct economic output. In the mid-to-late stage of 5G commercialization, the information service income of Internet companies related to 5G has increased significantly and become the main source of direct output. It is estimated that in 2030, the Internet information service income will reach 2.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 42% of the total direct economic output.

From the perspective of equipment, various vertical industries will become the main force of network equipment expenditure in the middle and late stages of 5G commercialization. In the early stage of 5G commercialization, operators carried out large-scale construction of 5G networks. It is estimated that in 2020, telecom operators will invest more than 220 billion yuan in 5G network equipment, and various industries will spend more than 54 billion yuan on 5G equipment. As network deployment continues to improve, operators' network equipment expenditure is expected to begin to decline from 2024. At the same time, as 5G penetrates and integrates into vertical industry applications, the expenditure of various industries on 5G equipment will grow steadily, becoming the main force driving the revenue growth of related equipment manufacturers. In 2030, it is estimated that the expenditure of various industries and fields on 5G equipment will exceed 520 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 69% of the total revenue of equipment manufacturers.