It’s too early! The conditions for shutting down 2G networks may not be met until 2019

On April 5, while China was going crazy for the "Xiong'an New Area" during the Qingming Festival, Singapore also announced that it would say goodbye to 2G and shut down its 2G network starting April 1.

Looking at China, there is still no clear timetable. Due to the large number of 2G users and a large number of 2G terminals on the network, some experts predict that China will not be able to shut down the 2G network until 2019.

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The world is bidding farewell to 2G networks

As early as 2009, Japan's NTT DoCoMo, KDDI and SoftBank announced the complete suspension of 2G services; in 2010, Finland's three major telecom operators also shut down their 2G networks; in 2012, New Zealand Telecom and South Korea's KT also shut down their 2G networks; in December 2016, Australia's Telstra also announced that it had shut down its 2G network.

US mobile operator Verizon plans to shut down its CDMA 1X network by December 31, 2019. Some of Verizon's mobile users use voice call services through its 2G CDMA 1X network, but Verizon is using VoLTE technology to transfer voice call services to the LTE network.

Another US telecom operator, AT&T, announced that it had officially shut down its 2G network on January 1, 2017.

Singapore announced that it would stop providing 2G network services from April 1, 2017, in order to use part of the current 2G radio frequency spectrum to provide faster 3G and 4G services, but there are still nearly 130,000 2G users.

China: 2G network may not be shut down until 2019

The 2G shutdown trend abroad has not swept into China, and the three major domestic operators have not clearly stated a timetable for network withdrawal.

Li Jinliang, a professor-level senior engineer at the Seventh Research Institute of China Electronics Technology Group Corporation, said in his article "Shutting down the 2G network is the best option at the moment": "There are fewer and fewer 2G users, and the actual amount of 2G business is also decreasing. The tariffs contributed by 2G are also decreasing, and the income obtained is difficult to meet the maintenance expenses. In this way, the quality of voice services provided is getting worse and worse. Either the call cannot be connected or the voice cannot be heard clearly. In addition, the manufacturers of the original 2G systems, terminals and components have shrunk due to market shrinkage, production conversion or bankruptcy. After the original reserve of equipment and devices for update or maintenance are exhausted, it is difficult to get replenishment, which makes the situation worse. The deterioration of 2G communication quality is difficult to avoid. Weighing the pros and cons of shutting down 2G, only proper shutdown and active upgrading are a good way out for operators and users to win-win. Why bother dragging an old cow and a broken car to endure the day!"

Just as Mr. Li said, the current situation of 2G network is like dragging an old cow to survive.

However, independent telecom analyst Fu Liang also said on his Weibo that there is no rush to shut down the 2G network. "It will not be until 2019 that my country's operators will be able to fully shut down the 2G network."

So why is it so difficult to decommission the 2G network, which is like an old cow pulling a broken car?

Take China Unicom as an example. Although there was a lot of news about China Unicom shutting down its 2G network some time ago, China Unicom has not explicitly stated that it will shut down its 2G network. Last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology agreed to allow China Unicom to conduct FDD LTE trials on 900MHz in 14 provinces and cities across the country, and then agreed to allow Unicom to adjust the 900MHz, 1800MHz and 2100MHz frequency bands for LTE networking.

However, the 900MHz frequency band was originally used for China Unicom's 2G business. With the development of 3G business, the frequency band now carries both 2G and 3G services, making it difficult to clear out users. At the same time, there are still many 2G users in China Unicom's existing 1.8 GHz network that cannot be cleared out. On 2.1GHz, which is Unicom's main 3G bearer network, frequency clearing and network withdrawal are also impossible.

The current situation is that China Mobile can withdraw from 3G, China Telecom uses a mix of 2/3G, and China Unicom has one network each for 2/3/4G, which is costly. Now a large number of terminals are 2G, making it even more difficult to withdraw from the network.

According to China Unicom: Based on business, market and competition needs, frequency resources will be tilted towards 4G networks, guiding 2G/3G users to migrate to 4G and giving full play to the advantages of frequency concentration.

"The gradual transfer of 2G/3G resources to 4G\5G is a major trend, and the three major operators are already actively planning. However, it should be noted that this is also a gradual process and cannot be rushed. The time is not yet ripe for the technically ideal best option of 'shutting down the 2G network'. If we want to 'shut down the 2G network', we should first technically promote the reduction of VoLTE terminal costs and support the 800MHZ~900MHZ frequency band. In terms of operations, we should launch voice packages below 10 yuan and encourage 2G/3G users to switch to 4G packages." Fu Liang said.