5G accelerates the process of 2G/3G network withdrawal in my country

Recently, British mobile operator Three UK has decided to shut down its 3G mobile services by the end of 2024. Previously, two other British operators, Vodafone and British Telecom, also announced similar announcements to shut down their 3G networks in 2023. The three major US telecom operators plan to completely shut down their 3G networks in 2022.

In the wireless communications industry, shutting down outdated networks is usually because telecom operators want to use limited spectrum resources for more efficient network technologies. For example, AT&T shut down its 2G network in 2017 in order to improve 3G network coverage and promote the popularization of 4G as soon as possible.

5G network construction accelerates the process of 2G/3G network withdrawal

With the large-scale commercialization of 4G/5G, the global 2G/3G network withdrawal process is accelerating. GSMA statistics on the global 2G/3G network withdrawal in recent years are shown in Figure 1. It is estimated that by 2025, a total of 61 2G networks and 46 3G networks will be shut down worldwide. At present, countries and regions such as the United States, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Macau, China have carried out 2G/3G network withdrawal.

Figure 1 Global 2G/3G network withdrawal statistics and forecasts (Source: GSMA)

Figure 2 Comparison and forecast of 2G/3G/4G/5G mobile phone shipments over the years (Source: Credit Suisse)

However, from a global perspective, the life cycle of 2G (GSM) is quite long. Even though 3G/4G/5G have emerged one after another, 2G has not yet been completely replaced. This can be seen from the historical comparison and forecast of 2G/3G/4G/5G mobile phone shipments drawn by Credit Suisse (see Figure 2).

Operators have accumulated rich experience in 2G/3G network withdrawal

Since 2008, some telecom operators around the world have started to withdraw 2G/3G networks, and have accumulated rich experience to date, as follows.

First, ensure that the replacement network has the same service level. This is the premise for shutting down the old network. Therefore, during the transition period of network withdrawal, a thin 2G network must be retained to carry roaming services, otherwise it will affect users' trust in telecommunications services. For example, in Germany, although the 3G network has been shut down for a long time, the 2G network is still retained to maintain the continuity of voice services.

Second, a sufficient transition period should be allowed before shutting down the old network. According to the practice of foreign telecom operators, the transition period is usually about 3 years. Telecom operators should inform users of the time and path of network withdrawal through various channels in advance, and provide users with various compensation or incentives, including various discounted phone charges and mobile phone terminals, and assist in recycling old mobile phones. For example, in the United States, AT&T once provided services such as free mailing of smartphones to users in remote areas.

Third, properly handle the negotiation and communication with industry units. Telecom operators should formulate detailed 2G/3G network withdrawal plans in advance, and especially strengthen the negotiation with industry units. For example, before shutting down its 3G network, AT&T provided more than $100 million in incentives to corporate customers to encourage them to replace outdated 3G equipment, and tailored solutions for corporate customers with unique transition needs.

Fourth, accelerate the progress with the assistance of industry regulators. Telecom operators should work with industry regulators to publicize the relevant measures of network withdrawal to the public, negotiate and formulate a plan for the gradual withdrawal of 2G/3G terminals to cut off the source of new 2G/3G equipment entering the network, etc. For example, Vietnam has formulated the following policy: starting from 2022, manufactured or imported mobile communication terminal equipment must support 4G technology; starting from September 2024, the license for 2G/3G technology will no longer be extended.

Telecom operators' 2G/3G network withdrawal still faces resistance from many parties

Although telecom operators have formulated 2G/3G network withdrawal policies, the complete shutdown of 2G/3G networks will still face resistance from ordinary users, industry enterprises and public organizations. Take the US AT&T's plan to shut down the 3G network as an example. As early as 2020, when AT&T informed the public of its 3G network withdrawal plan, it received a large number of user complaints. After that, the Alarm Industry Communications Committee proposed to the Federal Communications Commission that due to time constraints, there was no time to complete the upgrade and transformation of all equipment systems. Some law enforcement agencies, families and cars' tracking and monitoring equipment were still using 3G, and shutting down 3G would bring "significant public safety risks." The Alarm Industry Communications Committee also believes that the network migration plan formulated by AT&T for it cannot prove that it can ensure immediate restoration of service in the event of a major interruption in critical systems. For the same reason, T-Mobile's 2G shutdown time has not yet been determined, even though its 2G/3G traffic accounts for less than 1%.

2G/3G network withdrawal is an inevitable option for the transformation of new and old kinetic energy

First, the frequency resources vacated by 2G/3G will promote the accelerated improvement and development of 4G/5G. 2G/3G has long become an old technology with insufficient network speed, capacity, frequency efficiency, etc. However, the low-frequency resources it occupies have natural advantages such as wide signal coverage and strong penetration. If they are released for new technologies such as 4G/5G, it will greatly reduce construction and operation costs and improve resource utilization efficiency.

Second, the cellular Internet of Things and broadband voice technologies promoted by China can well replace 2G/3G. 2G/3G mainly carries voice calls and medium- and low-speed data services. The NB-IoT (narrowband Internet of Things), 4G (including Cat1, VoLTE) and 5G technologies currently promoted by China can completely fill the technical gap after the withdrawal of 2G/3G networks.

Third, shutting down 2G/3G networks is an inevitable choice for implementing green, low-carbon and network security strategies. Shutting down 2G/3G can reduce energy consumption, save operating and maintenance expenses and licensing fees, and make it easier for telecom operators to focus on developing 4G/5G. Because the 2G/3G base station authentication mechanism is incomplete, shutting down 2G/3G networks can eliminate some criminal acts such as hacker eavesdropping and fake base station fraud, and eliminate some hidden dangers that endanger user information security and public security.

Domestic 2G/3G network withdrawal policy becomes clearer

In November 2021, the MIIT issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Information and Communication Industry", which clearly proposed "accelerating the withdrawal of 2G and 3G networks and coordinating the coordinated development of 4G and 5G networks", and included the withdrawal of 2G/3G networks in the key tasks of network infrastructure during the "14th Five-Year Plan". Prior to this, in May 2020, the MIIT issued the "Notice on Deepening the Comprehensive Development of Mobile Internet of Things", which for the first time clearly proposed "promoting the migration and transfer of 2G/3G Internet of Things services". Telecom operators have also issued a number of 2G/3G withdrawal documents, such as China Mobile's requirement to stop adding new 2G Internet of Things users by the end of 2020; China Telecom has pushed for the gradual migration of 2G voice services to VoLTE, and required 5G terminals to no longer support 2G; China Unicom has released a 2G/3G withdrawal plan to encourage 2G users to upgrade to 4G/5G.

Difficulties faced by 2G/3G network withdrawal

The withdrawal of equipment from the network is not a simple technical or economic issue. Currently, my country's 2G/3G network withdrawal faces the following difficulties.

First, the scale of 2G/3G is huge, and the withdrawal process should not be "one size fits all". As of the end of 2021, the scale of 2G/3G base stations still reached 2.635 million, accounting for more than 26% of the total number of base stations. The 2G/3G network still carries hundreds of millions of mobile phone users and IoT users, among which China Mobile's 2G is the largest, carrying nearly 90% of users. In some areas, telecom operators have started to shut down some 2G/3G base stations, but due to the inappropriate withdrawal plan, some negative public opinion has been triggered.

Second, new 2G/3G IoT terminals are still being shipped. According to statistics, the shipment volume of 2G/3G non-mobile terminals reached 15.01 million in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 69.7%, but still showing a situation of "booming production and sales". Once the terminal equipment is connected to the network, it will undertake important production and operation tasks for industry users, and the iteration cycle of IoT terminals is long. Taking smart meter reading as an example, it can reach 7 to 15 years, which brings hidden dangers to the complete withdrawal of 2G/3G from the network in the future.

Third, the task of migrating 2G/3G stock services is heavy. For 2G/3G IoT services, the research of China Mobile Research Institute is shown in Figure 3. The current main IoT services include Internet of Vehicles, sharing industry, smart finance, smart meters, consumer electronics, etc., involving a large number of historical asset issues, including existing communication modules, and even who will pay for the upgrade of production equipment. For 2G/3G mobile phone services, most 2G user terminals are feature phones for the elderly, and some are children's phone watches. According to the survey, there is still a market for low-priced 2G feature phones, and there is still a price difference of tens of yuan between them and 4G feature phones, so they are popular with some elderly people. According to statistics, the shipment volume of 2G/3G mobile phone terminals reached 4.17 million in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 52.3%, but there are still 12 new 2G/3G mobile phone products on the market.

Figure 3 2G mobile IoT traffic share (Source: China Mobile Research Institute)

Fourth, alternative technologies still face network and industry issues. 2G/3G networks carry low- and medium-speed IoT services. Although 4G/5G network technologies are replaceable, they still face the following problems in order to achieve network migration as soon as possible. First, NB-IoT network coverage is limited. At present, telecom operators' NB-IoT network deployment efforts are limited. The NB-IoT network coverage level in some areas cannot fully meet the requirements of carrying 2G/3G connection migration, and the local coverage depth needs to be strengthened. Second, the cost of 4G Cat1/5G terminal modules is not low enough. 4G Cat1 technology can be quickly deployed through 4G networks, but because its first batch of modules will be launched at the end of 2019, it will take at least 3 years to achieve the same price and quality as 2G modules.

Several suggestions on orderly promoting the withdrawal of 2G/3G networks in my country

Eliminating the "old kinetic energy" of 2G/3G has positive significance for the sustainable development of my country's information and communication industry. However, my country's 2G/3G network withdrawal task is heavy and the situation is complicated. While learning from the experience of 2G/3G network withdrawal in foreign countries, we must also steadily promote the 2G/3G network withdrawal work in light of the actual situation and implement the requirements of the 14th Five-Year Plan for the information and communication industry.

Recommendation 1: Deploy 2G/3G network withdrawal plan as soon as possible

In order to properly handle the withdrawal of existing 2G/3G users, telecom operators should deploy the direction and path of 2G/3G withdrawal in advance, consider carrying out 2G/3G withdrawal work in stages, regions and frequency bands, inform users and industry units of 2G/3G withdrawal policies through multiple channels in advance, make preparations for 2G/3G withdrawal, including psychological considerations, and negotiate with industry units in advance on the withdrawal and migration plan of 2G/3G services.

Suggestion 2: Ensure that 2G/3G network withdrawal does not reduce service

Telecom operators should continue to optimize alternative networks and ensure that alternative networks reach or even exceed the original 2G/3G levels in terms of signal coverage and service quality in areas where 2G/3G networks are shut down. During the transition period, consider retaining a thin 2G network as an emergency backup; and provide 4G/5G mobile phone rental services for foreign tourists at airport entry and exit points to undertake international roaming services.

Suggestion 3: Accelerate the migration of existing 2G/3G services

Telecom operators should carry out precision marketing services in advance and launch some attractive network switching incentives or targeted communication plans, including providing 4G/5G preferential packages, launching discounted smartphone sales activities, providing smartphone usage skills training for the elderly, developing elderly-friendly smart terminals, communicating and negotiating IoT network switching plans, etc.

Recommendation 4: Vigorously promote NB-IoT/4G Cat1/5G applications

Promote the accelerated maturity of the 4G Cat1/5G module industry, build NB-IoT networks on demand, and quickly form a mobile Internet of Things ecological development pattern with NB-IoT/4G Cat1/5G as the "three horses", increase the proportion of advanced mobile technology usage, stimulate the endogenous driving force for 2G/3G existing businesses to accelerate the migration to NB-IoT/4G Cat1/5G, and accelerate the prosperity of 4G/5G applications.

Recommendation 5: Plan 2G/3G frequency refarming in advance

Telecommunications industry regulatory agencies should conduct electromagnetic compatibility research in advance, handle interference protection and coordination issues among various business systems, and initiate frequency planning adjustments such as 800MHz/900MHz/1800MHz/1900MHz/2100MHz in a timely manner.