Will Huawei's 5G industry see a turnaround in 2021?

Since 2018, some Western countries, led by the United States, have launched an all-round crackdown on Huawei 5G. In the past two years, from Australia to Canada, from Poland to the United Kingdom, news of Huawei 5G being banned has continued to come. Even Sweden, which has always remained neutral, has followed suit, forcing the president of Ericsson to speak harshly. The only country that can survive is Germany, but it is also in uncertainty. In 2020, Huawei 5G is almost struggling in the international market.

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But Huawei has been standing firm. With its outstanding performance in the Chinese market, Huawei 5G remains the global 5G leader. Huawei is still the most active member in contributing to 5G standards of international organizations; Huawei is still a leader in network construction, commercialization and application practice.

In 2021, 5G development will enter a period of rapid development, and global 5G network construction will also enter a climax period. GSA predicts that by the end of 2021, the number of 5G commercial networks in the world will exceed 200. On the other hand, the international political and economic situation has changed suddenly, and the resistance to the global development of 5G is also changing. Does all this indicate that Huawei 5G will usher in a new turning point in 2021?

First of all, the great development of the 5G market requires Huawei. Huawei's strength in the 5G field is well known, and it is precisely because of this that it has been "jealous, envied and hated" by the United States. As mentioned above, 5G will enter a period of rapid development in 2021, and 5G construction will be carried out on a large scale. Among them, China's 5G construction and commercial experience are crucial. At present, China has built the world's largest 5G commercial network, and applications based on various vertical industries are also in full swing. With fast network construction, large user scale and many application scenarios, it can be said that China is a relatively good test field and fertile ground for the development of 5G. This year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed that 5G should develop with high quality, focus on creating a number of industry benchmark applications, and fully promote the implementation of 5G applications. As the main force of China's 5G construction, Huawei has accumulated rich capabilities and experience in 5G construction and application. Huawei can export these capabilities and experience, which is conducive to the rapid construction and development of 5G around the world.

Secondly, the development of the international political and economic situation will help to "unban" Huawei's 5G. Now that the United States has changed its president, although the Sino-US competition will not change substantially because of one or two people, the author still believes that Biden will be more rational in relations with China than Trump. After Biden takes office, he will definitely adjust his relationship strategy with Huawei, and will not overly force other countries to choose sides, which will give some European countries some autonomy. Moreover, the new crown epidemic in the United States is now in danger of getting out of control. To solve this major concern, perhaps China can help the United States. More importantly, the China-EU Investment Agreement signed not long ago by China and Europe has deepened China-EU cooperation. The deep binding between China and Europe makes Europe inseparable from China, and China is also inseparable from Europe, making it impossible for the United States to isolate China globally. Against this background, in the development of 5G, European countries will try to give up some markets to Huawei while watching the face of the United States, and walk and see. Therefore, Huawei will have a place in the European market in 2021.

Thirdly, China will increase countermeasures to force the United States and its followers to "change their minds" and relax sanctions on Chinese companies such as Huawei. The "Measures for Blocking the Improper Extraterritorial Application of Foreign Laws and Measures", which was just issued by the Ministry of Commerce of China, is the latest in a series of countermeasures. The introduction of the "Measures for Blocking the Improper Extraterritorial Application of Foreign Laws and Measures" means that in the future, the Ministry of Commerce has the right to request that foreign "long-arm jurisdiction" measures that violate international law and undermine China's sovereignty based on their domestic laws should not be recognized and enforced. This move is also seen as a clear countermeasure to the United States' use of long-arm jurisdiction to suppress Chinese companies in the past two years. The "Measures for Blocking the Improper Extraterritorial Application of Foreign Laws and Measures" not only counters the United States, but also counters those companies and institutions that comply with US laws and undermine the interests of Chinese companies. This move will make European and American operators, equipment manufacturers, chip companies and all parties in the 5G industry chain weigh their options.

Finally, the US sanctions are unpopular, and the anti-China alliance is not a monolithic entity. In fact, more European countries prefer to cooperate with Huawei, especially some countries' excellent operators who know it well and have always supported Huawei and urged their governments to cooperate with Huawei. Even competitor Ericsson has publicly expressed its support for Huawei's development in the Swedish market. Recently, 17 European countries signed the "Joint Statement on the European Processor and Semiconductor Technology Program" with the aim of further improving the competitiveness of European companies in the chip market. In recent years, the United States has gradually withdrawn many European companies from the Chinese market through sanctions. At the same time, the United States has exempted these US companies. This principle of America first has seriously damaged the economic interests of European companies. The unilateral policy of the United States has also made Europe realize the importance of relations with China. Therefore, the anti-China alliance will gradually split because of Huawei in 2021.

In short, although the outlook for 2021 is not very clear, the ice has cracked, and Huawei's 5G will usher in a new turning point globally. Of course, the iron must be hard, and only when China's 5G develops faster and better, Huawei and Chinese companies will have a stronger voice in global 5G and win more market share.