Networks, users and terminals have all taken shape, and accelerating 5G "network migration" has become a top priority for operators

It is now late October 2020. In a few days, my country's 5G commercial use will celebrate its first anniversary. In this year, both 5G networks and 5G users, 5G terminals and 5G applications have made great progress, and my country's 5G commercial use has begun to take shape. However, my country's 5G commercial use also has shortcomings in its development. The matching degree between "machine", "network" and "package" is still not high. How to take measures to accelerate the migration of users from 4G networks to 5G networks in the future will be the top priority for operators.

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my country's 5G commercialization has begun to take shape

At a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on October 22, Wen Ku, spokesman for the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and director of the Information and Communications Development Department, said that the construction of 5G base stations has already completed the annual target of 500,000 ahead of schedule, and 5G coverage has basically been achieved in cities. From January to September this year, the shipment of 5G terminals has exceeded 100 million, and 160 million terminals have been connected to the Internet.

The above data is actually the "report card" of my country's 5G commercial use in the past year, and this result is excellent. You know, in the middle of this year, data showed that the total number of 5G base stations in the world was about 1 million, and the scale of 5G base stations in China was about 500,000. In other words, with the power of one country alone, the number of 5G base stations built by us can account for about half of the world. Perhaps, the scale of 5G base stations in a province alone can be compared with the scale of the entire country of most commercial 5G. This also shows the extent of our first-mover advantage in 5G and our confidence in leading 5G.

In terms of the number of 5G users, my country is far ahead of other countries in the world. As of the end of September, China Telecom's 5G package users reached 64.8 million, and China Mobile's total number of 5G package customers reached 114 million. The total number of these two companies alone has reached 170 million. If we conservatively add China Unicom's 5G users, it will exceed 200 million without any problem.

According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, 207 5G terminals have obtained network access licenses, including 180 5G mobile phones, many of which are priced below 2,000 yuan. Among the new mobile phones launched in the past two months, 5G mobile phones account for nearly 80%. All of this has laid a good foundation for the upcoming 5G boom.

The application scenarios of 5G have covered many industries such as industry, transportation, medical care, energy, etc., and have gradually expanded from peripheral production links to core business areas such as equipment control.

China Telecom's 5G application cooperation areas have covered 10 vertical industries, including police, transportation, ecology, party building, medical care, Internet of Vehicles, media live broadcast, education, tourism, and manufacturing. China Mobile has built 100 benchmarks for 5G industry applications involving various industries, and has the ability to promote large-scale commercial use of 5G vertical industry applications in 15 sub-sectors. China Unicom is also seizing the beachhead, actively leveraging its resource advantages, deeply promoting industrial cooperation, and accelerating the cultivation and integrated innovation development of 5G+ vertical industry applications. The GSMA think tank predicts that the number of global 5G connections will reach 1.7 billion by 2025, with the Asia-Pacific region accounting for the highest proportion. Based on China's rapid launch of 5G and its high usage rate, China's 5G connections in 2020 will increase by 16.6 million (18%) compared with GSMA's previous forecast.

It is not difficult to see from these data that the development of domestic 5G networks is very smooth. Liu Liehong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said: In the next three years, my country is in the "introduction period" of 5G development. It will adhere to a moderately advanced construction rhythm and steadily promote the deployment of 5G networks.

There are still problems to be solved behind the transcript

Although my country has achieved good results in the first year of 5G commercialization, we must also see that 5G is still a new thing and has not been developed for a long time. There are still many problems to be solved behind it. We cannot be blinded by victory.

Wu Hequan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, recently talked about the development of 5G in the past year. He believes that although China's 5G commercialization has achieved certain results, it still faces many problems. The problems that have emerged since the commercialization of 5G are concentrated in the following three points: immature technology, high operating costs, and difficulty in digesting costs.

Regarding the maturity of 5G, he said that mobile communication technology is always being improved, basically every ten years, and the first few years of each generation are the process of technology maturation. In addition, there are many version upgrades during each generation. It can be said that technology is constantly improving, and it is obvious that it is immature when it is first commercially used, especially 5G.

Regarding the energy consumption of 5G, the energy consumption of each 5G base station is about 2-3 times that of 4G. From this, it can be concluded that the total energy consumption of 5G base stations may be about 4-9 times that of 4G. From the perspective of energy efficiency, although 5G has high energy consumption, it supports a large capacity. According to calculations, the energy efficiency of 5G is 27 times that of 4G, so it is worthwhile from the perspective of energy efficiency. Of course, we can also minimize energy consumption in other ways. Regarding the return on investment period of 5G, the current ARPU value of 5G users in South Korea is 37% higher than that of 4G, indicating that in terms of revenue from consumer users, 5G will exceed 4G. The network cost of 5G is 4-5 times that of 4G, and the operating income will exceed 6 times that of 4G. It can be considered that the return on investment of 5G is equivalent to that of 4G.

Prior to this, Ding Yun, executive director of Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. and president of the Carrier BG, also stated at the 2020 China International Information and Communication Exhibition that China has built the world's largest 5G network, but there is still a gap with foreign countries in terms of user experience, coverage, and commercial closed loop. He said that China currently has more than 100 million 5G users, and many users have bought 5G packages, but they are not using 5G mobile phones. Both 5G and 4G use USIM cards, so users can upgrade 5G packages without changing cards or numbers. However, the problem brought about by this is that although the network speed will become faster when using 5G packages on 4G mobile phones, this is not the real use of 5G networks. While the country is investing a lot of costs, there are still many 5G users who are just experiencing 5G packages and not really using 5G networks, which is undoubtedly a waste. On the other hand, the area where users with 5G mobile phones are located may not have 5G coverage. Overall, the matching degree of "machine", "network" and "package" is still not high.

Accelerating users' "network switching" has become a top priority

At present, the construction of 5G base stations in my country is in full swing. Both the quantity and coverage are steadily increasing. What we need is patience. In terms of improving 5G technology, we also need time. After all, everything has its own development laws, and we cannot eat a fat man in one bite.

What we need to do now is to "migrate" as many 4G users as possible to the 5G network. With more users, we can test the advantages and disadvantages of the 5G network and find out what deficiencies 5G technology still needs to make up for. At the same time, with a user base, 5G applications can be further promoted. This important task will largely fall on the shoulders of telecom operators.

Previously, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on Promoting the Accelerated Development of 5G", which proposed encouraging operators to promote 5G terminal consumption through measures such as credit purchases, accelerate user migration to 5G; promote applications such as live events, game entertainment, and virtual shopping, promote new types of information consumption, and promote the integrated application innovation of 5G in various industries.

Analysts believe that telecom operators need to integrate data from billing, operations, and terminals to conduct in-depth insights and precision marketing, quickly improve and accelerate the matching of "machine", "network", and "package", and do a good job in 5G user migration. However, it is gratifying that at present, the marketing strategies of telecom operators have also begun to change. At present, the types of 4G packages of the three major operators have been significantly reduced, and the prices are far less attractive than 5G packages.

Zeng Jianqiu, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, further pointed out: "Operators should integrate development with all parties and focus on the development of 5G innovative applications for people's livelihood. This can not only meet people's livelihood needs, but also make users fall in love with 5G as they use it, and truly enhance user stickiness."

Zeng Jianqiu said, "There are more than 500,000 5G base stations in China, and the number is increasing at a rate of more than 10,000 per week." In his opinion, 5G will have a profound impact on public life for at least the next 10 years. Measures such as 1,000-yuan phones and preferential purchases under operator contracts, supplemented by innovative applications that directly serve the people's livelihood, will surely promote the popularization of 5G mobile phones, solve the problem that a large number of 5G package users are still using 4G phones, and truly bring 5G to the public.