After "encircling and suppressing" Huawei: The United States begins to save itself in 5G

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Recently, the United States announced a 5G network spectrum auction plan, which has caused quite a stir in the communications circle. The reason is that the United States has finally made concessions on the 5G golden frequency band that has been used by the US military for military ship-borne or airborne radar defense systems and opened it up to 5G commercial use.

This move means that the United States is now on the same starting line as the mainstream countries deploying 5G networks, but unfortunately, in this regard, most countries, including China and South Korea, have already gone too far.

What do spectrum resources mean to 5G?

Most people are familiar with 5G, and some have even started using 5G mobile phones and 5G networks. However, the term "spectrum resources" is a blind spot in the knowledge of many people.

Simply put, "spectrum resources" are electromagnetic waves of different frequencies, which can be used to transmit different forms of information. For example, our mobile phone calls, FM radio, and even Wi-Fi information transmission all require the use of electromagnetic waves, so "spectrum resources" can be understood as the "postman" responsible for delivering different information.

According to Science and Technology Daily, the spectrum can be regarded as a piece of "land" that has yet to be developed. Mobile communication technologies such as 2G, 3G, and 4G can occupy a part of the "land", that is, a part of the frequency band for development and utilization. Moreover, each piece of "land" implements the principle of exclusive development, that is, a piece of "land" can only be used by one mobile communication technology. For example, after China Mobile obtains the license for the 5G frequency band from the government department, it can only use this frequency band to carry out 5G business. Of course, there are still some frequency bands that have not been allocated, just like cities always reserve some land for future use without planning.

It is no exaggeration to say that spectrum resources to some extent determine the quality of an operator or even a country's 5G network, because only with high-quality spectrum resources can 5G technology be better utilized.

That is why the competition for spectrum resources is also an important battlefield for network upgrades in various countries. 5G technology is mainly divided into centimeter waves and millimeter waves. The former operates in the frequency band of 3GHz to 4GHz, while the latter mainly operates in the frequency band of 24~300GHz.

my country has always focused on the mid- and low-frequency bands of 5G, and has absolute technological advantages in this field. The United States has previously focused more on using millimeter wave bands (above 6GHz) to develop 5G, and some high-quality resources in the mid- and low-frequency bands (below 6GHz, also known as Sub6G bands) are mainly controlled by the US military and are scarce resources in the United States.

Of course, in specific applications, centimeter waves and millimeter waves also have their own advantages and disadvantages. For example, the part below 6GHz, which includes all the spectrum used by 2G, 3G and 4G, will also be the current mainstream application range of 5G. Its advantage is that the lower the frequency, the stronger the coverage and the better the penetration.

The characteristics of millimeter waves are ultra-large bandwidth, larger spectrum channels, fast transmission speed, and the current utilization rate of this band is low. The risk of interference is smaller. Radars for autonomous driving also use millimeter wave technology. However, the defects in coverage and penetration are also prominent. For example, the millimeter wave 5G network piloted by Verizon cannot even penetrate the leaves.

As we all know, the greater breakthrough and change brought by 5G is the expansion of the original connection between people and people, people and things, to the connection between things and everything, which in turn puts higher requirements on the quality, range and bandwidth of the connection. The low and medium frequency bands that can support a mixture of range, latency and bandwidth may become the backbone of 5G technology, especially as a bridge between traditional infrastructure and equipment.

As a result, due to various reasons, the United States, which initially chose millimeter waves, has gradually fallen into a passive position in the development of 5G. To be more precise, the division of 5G spectrum resources has once become a "heartache" for the development of 5G in the United States. On the one hand, the attitudes of all sectors in the United States towards spectrum resources are also wavering. On the other hand, although the United States claims to be "the first country in the world to deploy 5G networks," its overall 5G status has lost its first-mover advantage and has gradually been surpassed by South Korea and China.

How far behind is the US in 5G?

Now that we have mentioned the spectrum allocation in the United States, we have to talk about the current situation of spectrum resource allocation in our country.

Unlike the auction method in the United States, in my country, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology allocates spectrum to operators by issuing licenses, and the spectrum resources belong to the state.

In June last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology allocated spectrum resources to China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom and China Broadcasting Corporation. The details are as follows:

China Mobile: 2515MHz-2675MHz; 4800MHz-4900MHz

China Telecom: 3400MHz-3500MHz

China Unicom: 3500MHz-3600MHz

China Radio and Television: 700MHz+4.9GHz low-high frequency combination

It is not difficult to see that my country's 5G spectrum is mainly concentrated in the band below 6GHz. This is mainly due to factors such as coverage and base station costs. After all, compared with 4G, 5G requires the deployment of much more base stations.

It should be pointed out that although my country mainly uses medium and low frequency bands for 5G deployment, it also has related layout and exploration in millimeter waves.

In addition, because my country was the first to choose the mainstream deployment frequency band, related chip products and base station products were also launched to the market relatively early, which gave China a certain advantage in the popularization of 5G networks and widened the gap with the United States. This gap is more directly reflected in the number of 5G users.

5G has been commercially available for more than a year, but US operators have not disclosed the number of their 5G users.

Recently, the M-Science division of Wall Street investment bank Jefferies disclosed a set of reliable data, pointing out that as of mid-July 2020, the number of 5G users in the United States was 4.082 million.

As of June this year, the number of users of China's three major operators are: China Mobile has the largest number of 5G users, reaching 70.199 million, China Telecom also has 37.84 million 5G users, and although China Unicom has not announced the latest number of 5G users, according to relevant data, it is estimated that the number of China Unicom's 5G users is about 30 million.

At the same time, M-Science also counted the sales of 5G mobile phones of major US operators over the past year based on sales data from major mobile business retail stores in the United States. The data showed that by mid-July 2020, a total of 4.1 million 5G mobile phones had been sold in the US market. Among them, Verizon sold about 2.2 million units, AT&T sold about 629,000 units, T-Mobile sold about 501,000 units, and Sprint sold about 483,000 units.

According to people familiar with the matter, currently only Qualcomm has launched millimeter wave related products, while other chip manufacturers do not have millimeter wave related products. This has to some extent increased the difficulty of popularizing 5G in the United States.

In addition, the number of 5G base stations determines the coverage of the 5G network. It is reported that my country has built more than 600,000 5G base stations, while the United States and South Korea have only built less than 100,000 5G base stations. South Korea also has less than 100,000 5G base stations. In comparison, the gap between the United States and my country in 5G is obvious.

Spectrum self-rescue: a tug-of-war over time and financial resources

In fact, the United States is not new to the issue of 5G spectrum allocation. Relevant discussions have been ongoing within the country since at least last year.

On the one hand, as the commercialization of 5G accelerates, the United States has an increasing sense of urgency to compete for 5G leadership. On the other hand, in the view of some Americans, the delay caused by further spectrum allocation is likely to undermine the United States' efforts to dominate the development of wireless technology.

Now it seems that 5G is expected to be 100 times faster than 4G. Countries that take the lead in 5G will gain access to more powerful wireless technology for their companies faster than foreign competitors. This means more profits and jobs for the leading countries.

U.S. officials say the U.S. is well positioned to gain those advantages. But delays in allocating spectrum are part of the reason many believe China is ahead in the 5G race. In China, the national government is able to act more cohesively. China has allocated extensive spectrum for 5G development, prompting U.S. officials to warn the federal government needs to act faster.

Another fact is that frequency band transfers are rare in history, and the process generally takes quite a long time.

As stated in the auction plan recently released by the White House, the frequency band between 3.45GHz and 3.55GHz that was decided to be auctioned this time will not be publicly auctioned until the end of 2021, and is expected to be used for commercial purposes as early as mid-2022.

By 2022, the level of 5G development in China, South Korea and other countries will be completely different. So even if the United States changes direction and takes decisive action now, it is a bit late.

In addition, redeploying base stations or updating them will also take a considerable amount of time and cause financial losses.

It is reported that as a band operated by the military, missile weapons, fighter jets, ships, etc. cannot do without radar to capture this frequency band. This time the US military blew a lot of money and gave it up, which will definitely force the military to make emergency adjustments, otherwise it will face great security risks.

This series of coordination and deployment actions may take several more years before 5G devices can be widely used in the United States.

However, even though it takes such a long time to wait, the US communications industry has expressed a positive and optimistic attitude. Some people believe that although there is only a 100MHz frequency band, that is, 3.45GHz-3.5GHz, it also sends a positive signal to 5G operators and commercial companies, and more mid-band resources may be released in the future.

After all, the FCC will hold two mid-band spectrum auctions in 2020 alone. With the latest auction, it is expected that by the end of next year, the United States will release 3.45GHz~3.55GHz and 3.7GHz~4.2GHz frequency bands, a total of 600MHz spectrum. The development of 5G in the United States may usher in a new peak.

FCC Chairman Ajit Pai said, "This is a critical milestone in ensuring America's leadership in 5G."

“This is great news for the United States and a fantastic move for American consumers and the American wireless industry,” said Ted S. Rappaport, professor of electrical engineering and founding director of NYU WIRELESS, an academic research center.

Others see it as the latest positive step in a long transition of wireless to 5G services, which requires changes in technology (such as the wireless chips in phones), spectrum allocation, policy making and infrastructure buildout.

It is undeniable that spectrum has become a key gating factor in the realization of 5G wireless technology and is the key to ultimately open the door, but ironically, the United States, which has always been striving to be the first in 5G, is on the same track as a number of countries including China.

Whether the US 5G will catch up or continue to be left behind in the future, the good show has just begun.