2020 is already halfway through, how far is 5G from a full-scale outbreak?

In 2019, we often heard the industry say that 2019 is the first year of 5G commercialization, and 2020 is the year of 5G's full outbreak. However, so far, although 5G has made continuous breakthroughs, it does not seem to be as fast as expected.

The latest data shows that as of the end of June, more than 400,000 5G base stations have been built and put into operation nationwide, and the number of 5G users in my country has exceeded 100 million. In terms of terminals, 197 5G terminals have obtained network access licenses, 5G mobile phone shipments have reached 86.23 million units, and 66 million 5G mobile phone terminals are connected to the network.

The impressive data also proves that 5G is indeed developing rapidly. In just half a year, the number of 5G base stations has more than doubled, and the number of users and mobile phone shipments have nearly increased tenfold. It is no exaggeration to say that no technology in history has ever developed as fast as 5G, but judging from the data, 5G still has some distance to go before it can be fully popularized.

And from the feedback of current 5G users, 5G has not brought them too many surprises except for the fast network speed. The emergence of killer applications has become the most anticipated thing for 5G users. From this perspective, the emergence of killer applications is essential to achieve the full outbreak of 5G.

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Rapid development: Number of 5G users exceeds 100 million

The coverage of 5G base stations and the number of users represent the speed of 5G popularization to some extent. From this point of view, the full popularization of 5G is not a distant thing, but is just around the corner.

Wen Ku, director of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's Communications Development Department and spokesperson, said on July 23 that as of the end of June, more than 400,000 5G base stations had been built and put into operation across the country. During this year's two sessions, Miao Wei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, said in an interview with the media: "At present, more than 10,000 5G base stations are added every week."

Wu Hequan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, also stated at the "5G Commercialization One-Year Online Summit": It is expected that by the end of this year, the number of 5G base stations in my country may reach 650,000, and the number of 5G package users may reach 200 million, achieving 5G continuous outdoor coverage in all prefecture-level cities across the country, key coverage in county towns and townships, and indoor coverage in key scenarios.

In terms of 5G users, China Mobile had 70.199 million users in June, and China Telecom had 37.84 million 5G package users. Although China Unicom has not announced the number of users, considering the size of China Telecom and China Unicom and the joint construction and sharing of 5G, the number of 5G package users of China Unicom should not be much different from that of China Telecom. Therefore, the three major operators should be able to reach more than 140 million 5G users in the first half of the year.

In terms of the number of terminals, the shipment of 5G mobile phones reached 86.23 million units, and 66 million 5G mobile terminals were connected to the Internet. At the same time, the price of 5G mobile phones continues to drop, which will accelerate the popularization of 5G. It is expected that the price of 5G mobile phones will further approach the 1,000 yuan mark in the second half of this year.

Why is the 5G terminal only connected to the Internet at 6600?

I believe most people have such doubts about the data: why the number of 5G package users has exceeded 100 million, but there are only 66 million terminals connected to the Internet? Is it that the operators have falsified the data? Of course not.

Users of 5G packages do not necessarily apply for packages through 5G mobile phones. Many 4G users are also trying out 5G. And in terms of cost, 5G packages are not exaggerated. They are just slightly higher than 4G, which is a price that many 4G users can accept.

Taking Beijing Mobile as an example, according to the reporter's understanding, Beijing Mobile's entry-level 128 yuan 5G package is now 90 yuan after discount, including 30G traffic and 200 minutes of talk time. The 89 yuan 4G package includes 6G traffic and 230 minutes of talk time, and there is no other discount.

Therefore, for many users, although the cost of choosing 5G is higher than 4G, it is still quite cost-effective for users who want to experience 5G in advance. In addition, the current number of 5G users is basically the result of their own choice, not forced by 5G.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also said it would not intervene in the competition between the three major operators in 5G. "We hope to create a fair and dynamic market competition pattern. In this competition pattern, as long as the operators are within the scope of our supervision and the scope of protecting the rights and interests of the people, they can use appropriate methods," Wen Ku said.

In the process of users choosing 5G packages, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has also observed that some operators have some assessment indicators and promotion measures. Under this assessment pressure, subordinates will use some compulsory and abnormal means when promoting, which the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology strongly disapproves of. However, from the overall mainstream, the development of 5G is still good.

In terms of protecting user rights, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has also issued a series of rules and regulations. For example, the "Telecom Service Specifications", "Notice on Standardizing Telecom Service Agreements", and "Notice on Further Strengthening the Consumption Reminders for Telecom Service Users" and other regulations are used to constrain telecom companies. For example: when opening a service for a user, it is necessary to remind the user that the service cannot be opened without the user's consent. "This is not only for 5G packages, but also for other services."

Users are eagerly looking forward to C-end killer applications

This year's black swan epidemic has made people truly feel the convenience brought by 5G applications.

For example, the construction of Wuhan Vulcan Mountain Hospital, thanks to Huawei's technical support and assistance, has achieved full coverage of 5G signals. Taking advantage of the high efficiency, large capacity and low latency of 5G networks, remote diagnosis and treatment, remote conferencing, remote monitoring, and massive data collection and analysis will be realized, which not only partially solves the shortage of medical resources, but also reduces the infection rate of medical staff. At the same time, it also realizes large-scale real-time data transmission and sharing of epidemic prevention conditions, which is of obvious significance.

The first step in this epidemic prevention and control is to measure body temperature. The 5G imaging automatic body temperature measuring instrument has played a fast, accurate and efficient role, avoiding the disadvantages of many manual measurements. Some companies can work remotely from home, so that they can start work and prevent and control the epidemic at the same time, effectively controlling the disaster. From the perspective of the medical industry, combining 5G technology to achieve remote online medical diagnosis, measuring body temperature, blood pressure, and daily health care, etc., are more efficient for epidemic prevention and control.

In addition, unmanned delivery vehicles based on 5G and AI are also supporting the Wuhan style, playing a big role in avoiding cross-infection from human contact.

Although these applications are wonderful, for C-end users, they are more eager to see the emergence of killer applications based on VR/AR/XR on the terminal, so that they can experience the surprise brought by 5G more realistically.

"Cloud XR is one of the key application areas of 5G mobile communication technology and is recognized by operators and the XR industry as a potential 5G killer application." Zhu Cheng, President of Huawei's Wireless Industry Development Department, believes that it is foreseeable that in the next 3-5 years, VR will be comparable to desktop computers (PCs/servers) and AR will be comparable to mobile computers (smartphones and tablets). With the cloudification of visual perception and the prosperity of the XR market, and the investment of global technology giants in XR, XR terminals will make great progress in both perceiving the real world and displaying the virtual world. Combined with the application of 5G+cloud, they will quickly become popular and mature.

At the same time, Zhu Cheng pointed out that although 5G+Cloud+XR will bring disruptive and innovative experiences to the field of personal entertainment consumption and digital life, the deep integration of Cloud XR and 5G will bring many business innovations while also posing new challenges to systems and terminals. All parties need to work together in terms of standards, networks, technologies, and businesses to promote Cloud XR to become a "killer business" for C-end users in the 5G era.

It is foreseeable that by the end of this year, 5G will basically achieve full coverage of prefecture-level cities across the country. With the efforts of various industrial chains and the exploration of killer applications, 5G will enter the homes of ordinary people in the near future and achieve a true explosion.