How long will it take for 5G to be fully commercialized? Why?

Recently, a netizen asked, how long will it take for 5G to be fully used by the public? In this regard, we believe that there are three major factors for the full use of 5G by the public: first, terminals (referring to mobile phones, etc.), second, base stations, and third, tariffs. At present, the terminal issue has been resolved, but the main issues that stand in the way of the promotion of 5G by the public are the construction of 5G base stations and the civil tariffs. If these two issues are not resolved, it will take another 3-5 years for 5G to be fully used by the public.

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In fact, our society is gradually moving from 1G to 5G. The 1G system is just a simple phone call; the 2G era mainly provides numbers, which can be used to send text messages on mobile phones. In the 3G era, users can transmit data and media information. In the 4G era, users can achieve faster data, audio and video. For example, the most popular thing in the 4G era is live broadcasting. In the 5G era, data traffic is faster, and there will even be more terminals, bringing us into a new network field.

As we all know, Huawei is the leader in 5G, and China has a bright future, which has ignited the patriotic enthusiasm of many people. However, the world's first 5G mobile phone was not produced by Huawei, but by Lenovo's MOTO mobile phone, MOTOZ3, which was produced on August 2. That is, Motorola is well known to everyone. Recently, brands such as Huawei and Xiaomi have launched 5G one after another, which is enough to prove that we are ready for 5G hardware.

But the question is, what is the construction status of 5G base stations? In the past, the monthly power consumption of a typical 4G base station was 1300W, while the monthly power consumption of a typical 5G base station is about 3500W. Since the frequency of the 5G network is faster than that of the 4G network, the higher the frequency, the faster the attenuation, which requires the density of base stations to be denser than that of 4G. Therefore, under the same coverage area, the number of 5G base stations will be 3-4 times the number of 4G base stations. And this investment is an astronomical figure.

Let's take a look at the situation of 4G infrastructure construction in China. From 2012 to 2019, 4G construction in China has experienced a long construction period. At present, China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom, the three major operators, have more than 4 million 4G base stations across the country, and have achieved full coverage in large, medium and small cities, fully meeting people's daily communication needs; despite this, in some remote areas such as Aba Prefecture and Ganzi Prefecture in Sichuan, which I have visited before, full coverage has not been achieved. At present, the national coverage rate of 4G is about 95%.

Data shows that by 2016, the number of 4G base stations reached 4.046 million, and now it has reached 4.3 million. Under the same coverage area, the number of 5G base stations will be 3-4 times that of 4G base stations. Even if we take 3 times as much, 5G needs at least 12.9 million base stations to reach the current 4G coverage level. According to statistics, 50,000 base stations are expected to be built in 50 cities by the end of this year. 50,000 is a drop in the bucket compared to 4.3 million 4G base stations, not to mention the statement that 5G is at least 3 times the number of 4G base stations, which makes it seem that the arrival of the 5G era is still a bit out of reach.

At present, in addition to the need to reduce the energy consumption cost and price of base stations, there is also the issue of tariffs. The lowest price of the 5G tariff packages currently launched by the three major operators is 128 yuan, and the traffic only includes 30G traffic nationwide. Under such high tariffs, data traffic seems a bit "stretched", and it is estimated that it will take at least 3 years for 5G tariffs to further decline before 5G can be fully used for civilian purposes. Judging from the current 5G base station construction situation or the reduction of 5G tariffs, it will take at least 3-5 years to achieve full civilian use of 5G, and the 2-3 years rumored on the Internet may be a bit too optimistic.