Pour some cold water on the "feverish" 5G concept: the market is far from mature

The popularity of 5G networks, 5G mobile phones, 5G tablets, and 5G is no longer limited to the capital market where the red and green lines intersect. In the testing ground of real technology, 5G commercial products have indeed begun to take shape and are gradually growing into their "final appearance."

At the MWC Barcelona, ​​which is known as the "vane of mobile technology", 5G can be seen everywhere, whether in the layout of the venue, the keynote speeches of technology leaders, or the product applications demonstrated at the booths. Stepping into the booths of technology giants such as Huawei, ZTE, Ericsson, Qualcomm, and Intel, the slogans of "Leading 5G, Perfect 5G, Boost 4G to 5G" seem to be announcing the official arrival of the 5G commercial era.

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For enterprises in the communication ecosystem that are in urgent need of new opportunities, 5G is indeed a golden turning point. Larger bandwidth, more connections, and more imaginative business models will change with the official arrival of 5G. But the more the curtain is set, the more we need to maintain a proper rhythm and a clear mind. How much monetization capacity does the 5G network have? Is the market mature enough? These questions are worth thinking about.

A real case that can be used as a reference is that after Huawei released a series of important news about 5G at MWC, Huawei's rotating CEOs heard some different voices from customers.

An internal employee of Huawei told me that 5G is an undoubted trend and Huawei is also actively planning, but judging from the actual situation of receiving customers at this exhibition, only 10% of global operators have shown a strong willingness to invest in 5G, while more operators remain calm. From another perspective, how to get more benefits on the existing network is still the most concerned issue for current telecom operators.

Although the technology is very popular, 5G is still far from mature in the market.

At this time last year, some telecom operators expressed pessimism about 5G investment. "Purchasing equipment from traditional equipment vendors is a huge expense. On the road from 4G to 5G, I'm afraid some traditional equipment vendors won't be able to survive." Bruno Jacobfeuerborn, CTO of Deutsche Telekom, said that most of the investment occurred in 5G wireless access networks, and the return on investment was too low. In order to control costs, 5G investment cannot be made in the same way as in the past.

Such a cold warning stems from Deutsche Telekom's concerns and disappointment about the investment cost of 5G wireless access networks. Deutsche Telekom estimates that the investment in 5G wireless access will account for 50% to 70% of the total investment in 5G, which is an astronomical figure.

Deutsche Telekom's idea may be common among operators around the world.

Huawei also expressed concerns about the prospects of the communications industry. At an event on the 27th, Huawei's rotating CEO Xu Zhijun admitted that the communications ecosystem is in an unhealthy state and should adopt a more innovative cooperation model for the future.

"In the past, our industry was like this: a standard was established between industries, and we equipment vendors developed and produced products, and operators tested and tendered for use. But from Huawei's perspective, it is considered good if the products actually put on the market can achieve 30% to 40% of their performance. In addition, perhaps we have no way to provide what consumers really need. As the entire telecommunications network moves towards the cloud, I have deep doubts whether this long-term built business model can support us out of our unhealthy state," said Xu Zhijun.

It has to be said that even after stepping out of the 5G carnival, the entire communications industry is still anxious, and this anxiety is only increasing as 5G technology becomes more mature.

In fact, the more times like this, the more we need to be calm. The iteration, upgrade and commercialization of any generation of mobile communication technology cannot be achieved overnight. For operators, if 5G is commercialized too early, it means that the 100-meter race of 4G has not yet ended, and the 5G race has started again. How can the cost of 4G network construction be recovered? There must be a suitable rhythm for harvesting in autumn and storing in winter.

As the foundation of the network, 4G network will exist for a long time because it meets the basic needs of mobile broadband. For 5G, there is still a lot we need to do, and more importantly, no one wants to be a victim of being kidnapped by technology. When cheering for 5G, any participant should think more about this issue.