The successful commercialization of NB-IoT is not achieved overnight

According to media reports, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting the standardization of NB-IoT (narrowband cellular Internet of Things) and plans to put forward new requirements for the appearance, packaging and pin definition of NB-IoT modules.

On March 30, comobs reported that there were rumors in the industry that the three operators would work together to build a universal NB-IoT module. Now it seems that the rumors are not groundless.

The NB-IoT universal module jointly promoted by the three operators is expected to be used in three major application scenarios. Driven by the scale market, the cost of the NB-IoT universal module will quickly enter the market below 50 yuan within this year, and even enter the 5 US dollar range.

On April 11, comobs predicted that after the global commercialization of MDM9206, Qualcomm will launch NB-IoT chips, mainly in the Asian and European markets. It is rumored that Qualcomm is developing extremely low-cost NB-IoT chips; on the other hand, Qualcomm is promoting the development of the next generation of eMTC chips to ensure that the cost and power consumption are low and suitable for global commercial needs.

Compared with the MDM9206 multi-mode chip, which hopes to reduce the commercial risks of module manufacturers, Qualcomm launched a single-mode NB-IoT chip, which is obviously a sign of the business opportunities of massive connections. If NB-IoT can account for 70% of cellular IoT connections, it is conservatively estimated that there will be hundreds of millions of NB-IoT connections in 2020.

An operator objectively believes that regardless of the technology maturity or module cost, the industry's current positive impact on NB-IoT has been magnified, but in the long run, the industry still underestimates the value of NB-IoT.

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However, there are also extreme views in the industry that, judging from the commercial selection strategies of many large Ts, NB-IoT has essentially been eliminated, and large-scale commercial use of LoRa and eMTC will become a trend.

However, the author believes that reliability and security are the advantages of cellular Internet of Things, and LoRa does not have the strength to replace NB-IoT; secondly, in China, China Telecom and China Unicom have made it clear that NB-IoT will be commercialized first, and then eMTC will be commercialized in due course, laying the foundation for the healthy development of the NB-IoT market; thirdly, eMTC and NB-IoT are complementary, not competitive.

Industry insiders said that the mainstream choice of international operators is to commercialize NB-IoT first and then eMTC.

But why do North American operators choose to commercialize eMTC first? This is mainly because 4G in the United States is deployed on low frequencies, making commercial eMTC very easy; 4G networks of operators in Europe and China are built on high frequencies, so deploying NB-IoT on low frequencies first is more suitable for network evolution.

In this way, the development decision in China is crucial in the early stage of NB-IoT's large-scale commercial use. If the industry forms a joint force, NB-IoT will become the next "TD-LTE". Therefore, foreign media chose to "blacklist" NB-IoT at this time with ulterior motives, claiming that NB-IoT cannot achieve interoperability.

The motives behind the rumors are not simple. This has become a common phenomenon in the commercial use of relevant standards in the past. What is behind it is nothing more than the competition for interests among various camps.

In fact, with Huawei, Ericsson and others currently collaborating extensively on NB-IoT, and with the advancement of Qualcomm, a chip maker that has accumulated a certain share of patents in the NB-IoT field, it is difficult for NB-IoT not to grow.

Recently, there are also reports that the NB-IoT test results are not good. In fact, in addition to chips, the actual results of NB-IoT tests are closely related to module specifications and long-term network optimization. It is an exaggeration to simply assert that NB-IoT does not have commercial capabilities based on one-sided test data.

The twists and turns in NB-IoT commercialization should be treated in the same way as TD-LTE. Only by ensuring the unity of the entire industry chain, standards that are often not favored by the industry will impress competitors after large-scale commercialization. This was demonstrated in the fourth year after TDS commercialization and one year after TD-LTE commercialization.

Perhaps drawing on the commercial experience of TD-LTE, China Telecom will accelerate the development of NB-IoT in China through a number of measures around mid-May.

On the other hand, judging from the current progress of China Telecom and China Unicom in jointly promoting full network access to become an international standard in 2018, does it mean that China Mobile will also be issued an FDD license at this time point? This move will also be conducive to the development of China Mobile's NB-IoT. As reported by the media, China Mobile is also quietly "taking the lead" in NB-IoT.

At the same time, China Unicom, the second operator in China to truly commercialize NB-IoT in 2017, is not much behind China Telecom in its commercialization progress.

Currently, China Unicom has adopted a commercial strategy of developing NB-IoT and eMTC in parallel to achieve differentiated and complementary use of the two technologies to meet the needs of different scenarios.

According to China Unicom's plan, NB-IoT will be deployed using 900MHz+1800MHz, with 900MHz being the main frequency in rural areas. Previously, China Unicom conducted NB-IoT trials in Shanghai, Guangdong, Fujian and other places. Currently, China Unicom's NB-IoT has deployed more than 100 stations in more than 10 cities, providing applications including smart meter reading, smart street lights, and smart parking.

In Q2 2017, China Unicom deployed a virtualized core network for NB-IoT commercial use to meet the needs of future network evolution.

It is expected that by the end of June 2017, China Unicom will achieve commercial NB-IoT in key cities. On May 17, Shanghai will achieve full coverage of more than 2,000 stations. China Unicom will have commercial NB-IoT access capabilities across the country in August (strive to achieve by the end of July).

For the commercial use of eMTC, China Unicom will conduct large-scale pilot projects in four cities and deploy eMTC in due course in 2018. Earlier, at the end of 2016, China Unicom achieved eMTC data transmission under the existing network in Beijing.

At the chip level, with the commercialization of NB-IoT chips by HiSilicon, ZTE Microelectronics, Unisoc and MediaTek this year, the commercialization process of NB-IoT will be substantially accelerated. This year, Huawei will launch Boudica 150, which can support 698~960/1800/2100MHz to meet the commercial needs of China Unicom's NB-IoT, while ZTE Microelectronics will create multi-level differentiated advantages in NB-IoT chips such as sleep power consumption and peripheral interfaces.