No matter what happens with 13 incense, the 5G mobile phone market will not be a winner-takes-all

How far has 5G construction progressed?

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The watershed between the 5G and 4G markets has just arrived. The progress of the three major operators in building 5G networks is much slower than that of the 4G era. Whether from the perspective of construction difficulty or user demand, the popularization of 5G is not the "dynasty change" promotion of 4G. The high-frequency band makes the coverage of 5G base stations much smaller than that of 4G, so 5G base stations will be distributed more densely and in greater numbers.

Now is only the introduction period of 5G industry applications, and 5G consumer applications will not explode until 2022-2023. In the past two years (2019 and 2020), 4G mobile phone shipments are still higher than 5G mobile phones. Operators are more anxious than mobile phone manufacturers. On the one hand, the capital investment is too large, and on the other hand, the number of 4G mobile phones in stock is too high. From Apple's sales strategy alone, the hot sales of iPhone 12 have fully enjoyed the 5G dividend. How iPhone 13 is is another topic that has nothing to do with 5G market demand.

Changes brought about by the macro environment

It is common knowledge in the industry that the global chip shortage affects mobile phone shipments. However, there are reports that the price of 4G mobile chips has been rising recently. Domestic mobile phone manufacturers have increased their purchases of chips for 5G smartphones since the third quarter. Affected by foreign 5G mobile phone brands, the profits of domestic 5G smartphones have shrunk, and there may even be an oversupply of 5G chips for domestic mobile phone manufacturers. The conservatism in the third quarter is more like preventing the new impact brought by iPhone 13.

Note: It is expected that iPhone 13 will account for 1/3 of this year's 5G mobile phone shipments (it is up to you whether it is good or not, the prediction may not be accurate)

China Mobile and China Broadcasting Corporation jointly built a 700MHz 5G network. The industry expects that the 480,000 700MHz 5G base stations they jointly built will be enough to form a large network covering the whole country after completion; China Unicom and China Telecom are building 5G networks at 2.1GHz. Currently, there are only a few 5G mobile phones that support 700MHz and 2.1GHz. Most of the domestic 5G mobile phones currently only support 2.6GHz, 3.5GHz, and 4.9GHz, which is a clear shortcoming. The market share of iPhone 12 is indeed not low, but the next generation of domestic 5G mobile phones that are comparable to iPhone 13 will ultimately determine the market share.

Note: The core advantages of the 700MHz low-frequency band are low frequency, long wavelength (wide coverage), low propagation loss, strong penetration, and suitable for large-scale continuous network coverage. It is known as the "5G golden frequency band"

Conclusion: 5G service is only one factor that determines whether you change your phone. The slow construction of 5G network has prolonged the battle line. The smartphone market has never seen a winner-takes-all situation, because the marketing strategies of mobile phone manufacturers have formed a fixed pattern. The exit of 4G smartphones is also a relatively long process. The author believes that promoting the old-for-new exchange may be a new way of playing in the future mobile phone market.