The number of users is not increasing, the time spent is declining, and 5G applications are delayed. Can we only wait for the flowers to bloom in 2021?

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After many twists and turns, the number of mobile phone users in China has become quite stable, increasing in some quarters and decreasing in others, but it fluctuates around 16 anyway.

As for why? No need to look at the official explanation. The main reasons are nothing more than a few points. The first is the disappearance of the demographic dividend, which is a trend. The second is that the Internet disconnection action has reduced some "gray demand". In addition, number portability and other things have also reduced the demand for a new number.

Under this situation, operators can only focus on existing users in the future. It is not easy to snatch them away, so they have to tap internal potential and upgrade, and 5G users have become the top priority.

On April 22, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the economic operation of the communications industry in the first quarter of 2021: As of the end of March, the number of 5G mobile terminal user connections of the three basic telecommunications companies reached 285 million, a net increase of 86.84 million from the end of last year, accounting for 17.8% of mobile phone users.

Although the situations of the three specific operators are slightly different, they generally show the characteristics of accelerated 5G conversion and weak growth in the overall number of users.

On the evening of April 21, China Unicom released its first-quarter performance report, which showed that in the first quarter of 2021, China Unicom's 5G package users reached 91.85 million, a net increase of 21.02 million.

On April 21, China Mobile announced its operating data for March 2021, with a net increase of 15.593 million 5G package customers that month. As of March 31, 2021, China Mobile had a total of approximately 940 million mobile customers, of which 788 million were 4G customers, 189 million were 5G package customers, and 92.76 million were 5G network customers.

On April 28, China Telecom announced its operating data for March 2021. In that month, China Telecom's mobile user base increased by 3.45 million, with a total of 356.25 million mobile users. In that month, the net increase in 5G package users was 7.86 million, with a total of 111.23 million 5G package users.

What is interesting here is that China Unicom, which had previously refused to release the number of "5G package users" due to inaccurate caliber, is now the first to release the figures, because Unicom's 5G penetration rate is actually the highest among the three operators. China Mobile openly announced the total number of 5G network customers, while the other two operators have not yet announced it.

In addition, the increase in the number of operators' users also mainly depends on the Internet of Things. As of the end of March, the three basic telecommunications companies had developed 1.192 billion cellular Internet of Things terminal users, a net increase of 56.15 million over the end of last year.

Although the growth in the number of mobile phone users is weak, the good news is that mobile phone sales have begun to increase, which means that 5G phone replacement has entered a growth season, which is conducive to the improvement of operators' ARPU and also helps operators to develop new businesses and new applications.

Recently, Canalys released the latest data, which showed that China's smartphone shipments grew for the first time in four years, reaching 92.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 27%.

On April 26, according to the "Operational Status of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry in the First Quarter of 2021" recently released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in March 2021, my country's mobile phone production was 140 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, of which smartphone production was 110 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%.

In 2021, China Broadcasting Corporation will release its services, which will also promote a wave of mobile phone users. Just recently, China Satellite Network Group was established, and satellite Internet seems to be just around the corner.

The "2021 Mobile Internet Development Report" released by iResearch shows that as of the end of the first quarter of 2021, the scale of mobile Internet users reached 1.03 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.78%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.19%. The scale of active mobile Internet users showed negative growth for the first time on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

In the first quarter of 2021, the total number of apps installed per mobile Internet user increased to 63, and the average daily app usage time per person was 5.3 hours, up 0.3 hours from the previous quarter, but down 1.4 hours from the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2021, the proportion of short video industry usage time further increased to 29.6%, ranking first in the industry, and the gap with the second-place instant messaging continued to widen, reaching 9.5%.

We believe that with the support of 5G networks and new methods of communication, the number of mobile phone users may increase to a certain extent, but the ceiling of the number of mobile users and mobile Internet users in a substantive sense, as well as the length of time users spend online, have all reached their peak in 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic has stimulated the rapid development of China's mobile Internet, which is almost equivalent to the last gasp of the mobile Internet traffic economy. The 4G era where traffic is king has ended, but the 5G era where operations are king has been slow to open its doors. 2021 is destined to be a year of waiting for flowers to bloom. Whether the epidemic is over or 5G explodes, we can only wait.