4G is still growing, and 5G is still a long way off

Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the economic operation of the communications industry from January to August 2020. One set of data attracted the attention of this website: from January to August this year, the number of 4G users nationwide reached 1.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. At the same time, the number of 4G users accounted for nearly 82% of the total number of mobile phone users. Under the premise of a penetration rate of more than 80%, 4G still has a significant increase of 2.6%, which shows that 4G is still the mainstream at present.

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2020 is known as the first year of 5G, and the current situation reflected by this set of data is undoubtedly embarrassing for 5G. So, is the current 5G just a lot of noise with little action? In the future, how long will it take for 5G to be fully popularized?

Objectively speaking, the current development of 5G is not slow. In August this year, a set of data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed that China's 5G mobile phone sales from January to July 2020 were 86.23 million units, and the number of 5G users has exceeded 100 million. Although the sales of more than 86 million new 5G phones are not worth mentioning for the total number of users of the three major operators with a total of 1.6 billion, the new sales are more than double that of 4G.

At the same time, according to another set of data, the number of 5G base stations in my country has exceeded 400,000, with an average of 12,000 new base stations per week. It is expected that the established goal of 600,000 base stations will be achieved by the end of the year, and 5G network coverage will be basically achieved in major urban areas. In this context, it can be said that the speed of 5G base station construction and network coverage in my country is very fast, and the full popularization of 5G commercial use is just around the corner.

However, the main reasons why 5G cannot currently impact 4G are as follows:

• First, 4G has a huge foundation. 4G has been developed for much longer than 5G, so it is not easy for 5G to surpass 4G in the short term.
• The second is the cost limitation of 5G. Whether it is 5G base station construction, 5G packages, or 5G mobile phones, the price cost is relatively high, making it difficult for ordinary users to enter the market.
• Third, 5G network coverage is not perfect. Although the construction of 5G base stations is fast enough, it has not yet reached the conditions for popular commercial use.

Based on this, 5G is an inevitable trend in the future and will definitely replace 4G, but not now. According to the general saying in the industry, mobile communication technology is almost a generation every 10 years. 5G is still in its infancy. It is expected that 5G will be able to fully surpass 4G by 2025. Let's wait and see!